Realised I just attached the Timeform ratings' table earlier. Here's the full skinny from them post-weights.
BTW, the point made about Cause Of Causes and the record of previous runners-up is factually fair enough and it's true that most GN winners (every one of the last 8) are race debutants. But, if he's fit and has his ground, he's every chance of running another big race off a similar absolute weight (between -1 and, probably, +3lbs). Only Saint Are has sufficient weight-adjustment among last year's runners on paper to challenge him and there was only horse that beat him (4.5L) who doesn't return. Given that 4 of the last 6 winners didn't (won't) return (injury or retirement), for what it's worth, the recent record of winners nearly following-up the following year off higher OR increases ain't that shabby. Hedgehunter (2005, 11.01): 2nd (11.12) in 2006 OR+12lbs Comply Or Die (2008, 10.09): 2nd (11.06) in 2009 OR+15lbs Don't Push It (2010, 11.05): 3rd (11.10) in 2011 OR+7lbs
Very happy to have him on my slip each-way at 20/1 NRNB anyway (should have done him earlier!). If he goes well in the X-C and it's decent ground at Aintree, he could well be challenging for favouritism near single figures on the day.
Yeah I do enjoy backing a few at crazy prices on the exchanges. Walk In The Mill doesn't have typical profile with no "National" form but way he won at Ascot over 3m suggests further should be fine and indeed his pedigree gives cause for optimism on that front. His third behind Gold Present and Frodon looks good too, and if he gets a nice prep in the X-Country then I wouldn't want to be laying him at triple figure prices! But each to their own!
Ooh, just seen Bless the Wings entered. If he travels anything like he did at Cheltenham in December at the Festival, and if he makes the field, that 50/1 (which you can get NRNB with Sky and probably others) will go.
He probably goes against a million things in Peanuts' model, and is now a little on the old side I would presume, but I was really taken with how he beat out the likes of Cantlow, Tiger Roll, and Josies Orders (the latter two are favoured ahead of him for the XC which is surprising).
Either way, 50/1 NRNB seems like a punt worth taking, and equally worth taking is the 12s available in a couple of places for the Cross Country at Cheltenham next month.
Realised I just attached the Timeform ratings' table earlier. Here's the full skinny from them post-weights.
BTW, the point made about Cause Of Causes and the record of previous runners-up is factually fair enough and it's true that most GN winners (every one of the last 8) are race debutants. But, if he's fit and has his ground, he's every chance of running another big race off a similar absolute weight (between -1 and, probably, +3lbs). Only Saint Are has sufficient weight-adjustment among last year's runners on paper to challenge him and there was only horse that beat him (4.5L) who doesn't return. Given that 4 of the last 6 winners didn't (won't) return (injury or retirement), for what it's worth, the recent record of winners nearly following-up the following year off higher OR increases ain't that shabby. Hedgehunter (2005, 11.01): 2nd (11.12) in 2006 OR+12lbs Comply Or Die (2008, 10.09): 2nd (11.06) in 2009 OR+15lbs Don't Push It (2010, 11.05): 3rd (11.10) in 2011 OR+7lbs
Very happy to have him on my slip each-way at 20/1 NRNB anyway (should have done him earlier!). If he goes well in the X-C and it's decent ground at Aintree, he could well be challenging for favouritism near single figures on the day.
Just to complete the story, the "return" record of GN runners-up since 2010: Black Apalachi - did not run Oscar Time - did not run Sunnyhillboy - UR (OR+10lbs, weight +13lbs) Cappa Bleu - did not run Balthazar King - F when prominent at 8th (OR & weight+3lbs) Saint Are - PU on ground way too soft (OR+3lbs, weight -1lb) The Last Samuri - 16th (OR+12lbs, weight +16lbs)
Cause Of Causes may well not win it but I don't think these, very limited, stats suggest that a 3lb rise in OR and up to 3lb rise in absolute weight would be the reason.
Not surprisingly, quite a few of the Irish entries for Aintree are entered for the Irish GN on Easter Monday, 12 days before the GN. Weights for Fairyhouse announced today with Our Duke top-weight. 21 of the top 76 in the weights for Aintree have an entry: Edwulf Outlander Anibale Fly Mala Beach Total Recall Alpha Des Obeaux Noble Endeavor Acapella Bourgeois Bellshill Rathvinden Tiger Roll A Genie In Abottle Ucello Conti Baie des Iles Pleasant Company Polidam Childrens List Morning Assembly Road To Riches Thunder & Roses Bless The Wings
Not inconceivable to run in both. Ebony Jane was 3rd in the Irish, just 5 days (!) before coming home 4th on testing ground at Aintree in 1994.....what a dame!! Unlikely these days, unless exiting early.
American 50-1 with Betvictor. Done. Only 33's with Paddypower which is where my others are; Cause of Causes 20-1, See you At Midnight, 33-1, Abolitionist 33-1, Saint Are 50-1 and Final Nudge 50-1. Sadly PP not NRNB so fingers crossed that they run. Relatively small risk though at £5 e/w on each.
American 50-1 with Betvictor. Done. Only 33's with Paddypower which is where my others are; Cause of Causes 20-1, See you At Midnight, 33-1, Abolitionist 33-1, Saint Are 50-1 and Final Nudge 50-1. Sadly PP not NRNB so fingers crossed that they run. Relatively small risk though at £5 e/w on each.
Oh sh&t. I'm really sorry Chief but, given the horses you've backed, it seems like you thought that my post
Add one to the list. Harry Fry's entered American as well - 22 of the top 76 for Aintree
meant add one to the list to back for the GN. It actually meant add one to the list in the previous post, meaning one of the 22 entries for Aintree that's also entered for the Irish. Meaning that he may (it is only a may, nothing definite) have a different target than Aintree. I'm really sorry for the confusion. That said, if he runs (as he may well still do - lots of British-trained horses were entered for the Irish last year but only 2 ran), American's a bloody nice horse ......(and my recent GN record is full of near-misses rather than winner )
I've often been critical on here of the monopoly of certain trainers in Irish training. Messrs Mullins and Elliott account for just 48 of the 97 entries in the Irish National - that's less than half - and for that reason I truly apologise for my misconception in this regard.
Gold Present misses Kempton's Betdaq Chase (aka Racing Post Chase) on Saturday - presumably still not fit after a bruised foot. Saint Are missed the veterans' chase at Donny yesterday (unknown reason), in which Carole's Destrier ran disappointingly once again (off the bridle early - no sign in 3 runs this season of the horse that ran Native River so close in the 2016 Hennessy). Has to be a doubt over him lining up at Aintree. Race was won by one of Dr Newland's stable - for a smaller yard, he continues to have an excellent season (27% win rate in 56 chases - 57% making the frame). Just get Abolitionist ready!!!
Entries published today for the Kim Muir and Ultima 3m+ handicap chases at the Festival.
Maybe not be the link there once was but the 25f Ultima and 26f Kim Muir handicap chases have been decent preps for the GN over the years and the 4 week gap this time makes it ideal time-wise. A strong run's not essential, just a respectable spin.
Record of GN winners and runners-up since 1988 to run in either: • 1990: Mr Frisk (GN winner) 4th in KM (3 weeks gap) • 1991: Seagram (GN winner) Won Ritz Club Chase (now Ultima) (3 weeks) • 1992: Romany King (GN 2.5L 2nd) 4th in Ritz Club (3 weeks) • 1996: Encore Un Peu (GN 1.25L 2nd) Close 2nd in the KM (2 weeks) • 2002: Bindaree (GN winner) 7th (33L) in William Hill Chase (Ultima) (3 weeks) • 2009: Comply Die (GN 2nd) 25L 7th in the WH (3 weeks) • 2012: Sunnyhillboy (GN 2nd by a nose) carried 11.11 to win the KM (4 weeks).
Plus Laura’s Beau (1992), Fiddlers Pike (1994), Romany King (1995), Camelot Knight (1997), St Mellion Fairway (1998), Niki Dee (2000), Liberthine (2007), Hello Bud (2010), old faithful Swing Bill (2013) and Monbeg Dude (2015), all ran in one or other prior to making 3rd~6th in the subsequent GN.
Kim Muir 2018 entries (26f, OR 0-145), also in the top 76 in the GN weights: • Carole’s Destrier • Abolitionist (yeah!) • Buywise • Pendra • Wild West Wind • Final Nudge • Vintage Clouds
All but Abolitionist also have entries in the Ultima (25f, no OR limit), joined by the following also in the GN top 76: • American • Gold Present • Perfect Candidate • O O Seven • Shantou Flyer • Go Conquer • Vicente • Rock The Kasbah • Seeyouatmidnight • Tenor Nivernais • Traffic Fluide • Double Ross • Sametegal
Of course, 13 of the 27 Gold Cup entries are also entered for the GN (though they include 2 from the list above).
It's often said that a run at the Festival isn't compatible with horses running to their best at Aintree. One could argue the toss forever about what the stats really show but here they are (at least for those that ran well at Aintree after a spin in the GC):
Those who preceded a strong run in the GN (including 4 winners) with a run in the Gold Cup, since 1988: 1988: 1st Rhyme N Reason (Fell at the 19th GC) (3 weeks gap) 1989: 2nd West Tip (5th GC) and 3rd The Thinker (Fell GC) (3 weeks) 1991: 2nd Garrison Savannah (won GC) (3 weeks) 1992: 4th Docklands Express (1L 3rd GC) (3 weeks) 1994: 1st Miinnehoma (7th GC) (3 weeks) 1995: 4th Dubacilla (2nd GC) (3 weeks) 1996: 1st Rough Quest (4L 2nd GC) (2 weeks) 1998: 2nd Suny Bay (5th GC) (2 weeks) 1999: 4th Addington Boy (5th GC) (3 weeks) 2002: 2nd Whatsupboys (5th GC) (3 weeks) 2005: 2nd Royal Auclair (4th GC) (3 weeks) 2007: 2nd Hedgehunter (2.5L 2nd GC) (3 weeks) 2009: 3rd My Will (5th GC) (3 weeks) 2015: 1st Many Clouds (6th GC) (4 weeks)
It’s going be a really interesting week at Cheltenham, even if you have just an eye on Aintree.
It may be 2nd tier as regards Official Ratings but if you're a fan of ultra-competitive, stamina-sapping staying chases, an Eider Chase run on heavy is right up there. This year's (2.45 Newcastle) has 3 GN entries (CHASE THE SPUD, HOUBLON DES OBEAUX and MILANSBAR) at the top of the card and some interesting young stayers further down (particularly Vinne Lewis and Hainan). Throw in an old favourite in the shape of 13 year-old former-winner Portrait King in a near-maximum field of 17 and it's highly recommended viewing if you're not going to be at The Valley. Comply Or Die won this with top-weight before taking the Big One 10 years ago .............seems like yesterday Prior to that, there was a good and regular connection between a creditable run in the Newcastle marathon and making the frame at Aintree: Into The Red (1995), Superior Finish (1996), Samlee (1998) and Feels Like Gold (1999). You'd be forgiven for thinking it isn't much of a guide for Aintree these days but the fact is that, other than Comply or Die attempting another double in his final 2 chases before retirement in 2011, only one Eider since 2008 has seen any runners line up at the subsequent GN - 2015 (x2), when Portrait King was running a huge race at Aintree, with the leaders, before falling 3 out. Meanwhile it's Racing Post (nka Betdaq) Chase day at Kempton (3.35), another one with formerly-decent but now even more distant connection to the GN. It's not since Rough Quest's 1996 RP Chase and GN wins that any runner in this has made the frame at Aintree. GO CONQUER and AS DE MEE have the GN also in their sights today. Over the puddle, it's Bobbyjo Chase day (3.30 Fairyhouse). The promising BELLSHILL returns from a long lay-off to take on fellow GN entries A GENIE IN ABOTTLE and MALA BEACH and 3 other rivals. Fittingly, the Bobbyjo Chase is probably the most popular and significant Irish prep for GN contenders. Hedgehunter won both the Bobbyjo and GN in 2005, Snowy Morning made the frame in both in 2008, as did Black Apalachi in 2010, and Oscar Time ran in it both times prior to his 2nd and 4th in the 2011 and 2013 GNs. To my mind, at the weights, BELLSHILL (33/1 NRNB for Aintree and 4/7 today) could well have the best chance of all Mullins' potential GN runners (including current joint fav. TOTAL RECALL). Like GOLD PRESENT, his inexperience over fences means that he won't make my slip but both are somewhat reminiscent on the stats to King John's Castle (who was one of my model's selections and was 2nd in the 2008 GN). Unlike Henderson's steed (11.00) and his Hennessy-winning stablemate (11.01), BELLSHILL's allotted 10.07 for the GN makes him resilient to a weight-rise and, though he's also entered for the Irish GN and Mullins has concerns about his relative inexperience, a strong run today on Soft-Heavy could see him very "well-in" if he takes his chance at Aintree, with the stats to put in a bold show, if no cigar. Whether you're shivering at the Valley or with a bevvy in the warm to watch the racing and rugby, ENJOY!! COYR.
Abolitionist out of Grand National at Aintree Abolitionist has been ruled out of the Randox Health Grand National after failing to recover from injury.
The 10-year-old showed some high-class form when trained in Ireland by Ellmarie Holden last season, finishing second to Empire Of Dirt in the Troytown Chase at Navan before landing the Leinster National at Naas and finishing third in the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse.
Having since being snapped up by Dr Richard Newland, who claimed National glory with Pineau De Re in 2014, he was as short as 20-1 for the Aintree spectacular on April 14, but he will not be lining up in the world's most famous steeplechase this year. Newland told Press Association Sport: "He had a little problem earlier in the season and we've been trying to get him right, but unfortunately we've just run out of time.
"We entered him over hurdles at Ascot earlier in the month, but it's just in the last week or two that we've discovered he isn't quite right and we've got to back off and give him time.
"He'll have the rest of the season off and we'll have another go with him next season."
The only consolation would be if it means that Final Nudge gets a run.
Blimey, that was impressive stamina from Eider winner Baywing, sprinting clear at the end after a testing pace set by Milansbar (a highly creditable 5th but would need it soft or worse at Aintree for his now-required method of front-running in blinkers to be feasible on 14 April). West Of The Edge (Newland's runner!!) 2nd and the old boy Portrait King staying on into 3rd..... 13 years old, what a star. Poor effort from Houblon Des Obeaux, slightly less so from Chase The Spud - both PU'd.
Comfortable win for Bellslife. Now into 20s for the GN. Not a bad run from Go Conquer at Kempton but nothing to get excited about GN-wise.
EDIT Irish GN is preferred target for Bellslife, according to Mullins after his comeback win today. You might actually win it one of these years Willie.
With Abolitionist scratched, my returning stake has been reinvested on BLESS THE WINGS (tipped already by @PaddyP17 ) at 50/1 NRNB 5 places. To recap, the 4 carrying my shillings and Mrs Molloy’s hopes for a cruise next winter are (in no particular order): • CAUSE OF CAUSES (20/1 e/w NRNB) • SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT (33/1 e/w NRNB) • FINAL NUDGE (66/1 e/w) • BLESS THE WINGS (50/1 e/w NRNB)
If Bless The Wings appeals to you, it’s strongly recommended to back him NRNB (even though Paddy Power pay 6 places 1/5 odds, they’re not NRNB) as he also has an entry for the Irish GN. Having just missed the cut for Aintree last year (would have been on my slip) and being borderline to make it this time at # 66~70, Elliott may play safe and run him again at Fairyhouse, 12 days earlier than Aintree this year. Final Nudge and Bless The Wings both need at least 26 to come out above them to get a run in the GN (distinctly possible but not a given). Both allotted the same OR143 (currently 10.02) along with 3 others, they will be ranked according to their updated ORs prior to final declarations. So, performance in their final prep could be significant and every reason to suppose that Bless The Wings will be primed to run a big one in the Festival XC (albeit at a disadvantage with some rivals off level weights).
BLESS THE WINGS (13-10-02) • Stamina proven. 2nd in last 2 Irish GNs (short head in 2016 on Y/Soft). Both times, preceded by excellent runs (again 2nd both times) in the Festival X-Country. • Versatile as to going (many fine runs on decent ground and 29f win on testing) • He has never fallen or unseated in 44 chases. • A GN debutant but handled the fences well enough over an inadequate trip when completing in a fast-pace Topham 3 years ago (mistake at Bechers when squeezed up but this was prior to his XC career). • 13 year old but so too was Vics Canvas (3rd in 2016 GN – might have won but for a near-fall at Bechers). BTW has many more miles on the clock than did Vic but he appears as good as ever, winning the December XC at Cheltenham in style (matching a career-best RPR152, last attained as a 7 year-old) • Nicely-weighted. Phil Smith may have interpolated his XC and course ORs to give him OR143 but on both XC and relevant course form he’s even stevens with fancied stable-mates Cause Of Causes (on their runs at level weights at the last Festival) and Noble Endeavor (with Abolitionist scratched, his probable only rival from April’s Irish GN) • Absolute weight is highly relevant in marathon handicaps and, even if the weights rise, BTW will carry a very winnable one (probable max. 10.06) • 3 runs in the season, likely to make it 4 at the Festival, 31 days prior, is in the sweet spot stats-wise.
I have to say that this year’s GN is a particularly odd and tricky one to weigh-up from a stats perspective. Final Nudge and Bless The Wings (and my soft-ground reserve Raz De Maree) have had decent campaigns as regards both quality and quantity of outings but, as noted, both may miss the cut. Others with strong GN profiles stamina-wise have had light (or non-existent) campaigns. That's not a particular issue for Cause Of Causes (or my decent-ground reserve, Saint Are - both 1 ordinary run), as the stats for those returning with strong prior GN experience don’t preclude another strong show regardless, providing they’re reasonably weighted and sound, of course. A doubt clearly hangs over Seeyouatmidnight. He's reported to be on course for his return to the track at Kelso or the Festival and has a good record “fresh” but it isn’t ideal GN stats-wise for a runner who's never seen the GN fences to line up with just 1 prior outing in the season (and of course the infamous “bounce” is possible). What of the others (in the top 70) that made my short-list? With the exception of Vicente (who fell at the 1st last GN and seems likely to head to Ayr again rather than Aintree) and Raz De Maree (soft ground a must), at the weights and assuming typical GN going of GS, I prefer Cause Of Causes and Saint Are of those that ran last time, though several could run huge races (particularly Gas Line Boy, Regal Encore and possibly, if it came up soft and the weight-rise is minimal, Perfect Candidate). As noted in a previous post, most GN winners are race debutants (all of the last 8 were - 6 of them also course debutants) and the rest of my short-list comprised 6 lining up in a GN for the first time (in weights’ order): • Total Recall (9-11-01) – what can be said that hasn’t been already? Fine run in a fast run Hennessy (nka Ladbroke Trophy) but, in hindsight, was handily-weighted for that and his Munster National win. Pedigree suggests he should get further and allotted 11.01 (9lb higher mark) gives him a chance stats-wise but the prospect of a weights rise (maybe up to 11.05) means he’d have to put in a strong show in the Gold Cup to give him a GN winning profile. Possible but at 10/1 for Aintree, no thanks. • Gold Present (8-11-00) – inexperienced but highly progressive, handled the GN fences with aplomb before an unlucky departure at the Canal Turn in April’s Topham. Fine win in only attempt at 3m, winning or near-missing in 5 from 7 chases (unlucky stumble to add to unlucky fall at Aintree). Vaguely reminiscent of King John Castle’s profile (2nd 2008 GN), he could run a huge race but stats-wise, even if he were to score in the Ultima, as he may well, carrying 11.00 suggests no cigar at Aintree and a 2lb+ rise in the weights would count heavily against. 20/1 is short enough. • Noble Endeavor (9-10-13) – fine 6th in last Irish GN (5L behind 2nd Bless The Wings), capping off an excellent season (won Paddy Power Chase, placed earlier in Troytown and later in Ultima Chase at Cheltenham) and was going well (probably a place at best) when falling late in the 4m Novice chase at the 2016 Festival. However, again, no run since last April and no entry at Cheltenham. A prep in Ireland said to be in the plans. Not dissimilar to fellow course-debutant Seeyouatmidnight (stamina proven, current fitness not) but Noble Endeavor’s chances are more vulnerable to a weight rise according to the stats. 25/1 NRNB. • Bellshill (8-10-07) – mentioned yesterday, ran impressively in the Bobbyjo and would have been a lively chance off a light weight but Irish GN now the stated target. • Baie Des Iles (7-10-04) – out-and-out stayer, 6th (15L) in the 2016 Irish GN, 5th (23L) in the 2016 Welsh GN, made the frame in 5 of 6 other 3m+ chases (won 2), all on Soft or heavy. Nice weight to carry (10.04) and likely to make the cut (also entered for Fairyhouse and weather likely to determine the target). A 7 year-old French-bred mare – last 7 y-o GN winner was in 1940 and last mare to win it was in 1951. However, if it’s a bog get on!! 66/1 NRNB (80/1 ante-post 5 places) • I Just Know (8-10-04) – promising young and tough stayer, winner of January’s 3m6f North Yorkshire GN (OR 0-140) with 11.10 on Soft. Made the frame in 8 of 9 chases at 3m+, albeit in modest company (5 wins/near-miss). Stamina also evident in pedigree but OR raised 14lbs as a result of his Catterick win. Handles any ground but some meaningful cut would assist. Could run a huge race but, if he makes the line up, Final Nudge appears to have a pull at the weights based on their run at Ayr last April. Attracted a lot of early money at bigger prices post-weights, but still not to be overlooked at 50/1 NRNB.
GN is confirmed priority target for Baie Des Iles, Katie Walsh to ride. Won't run again before 14 April. Would probably need Soft ground or worse - very interesting if she got it.
GN is confirmed priority target for Baie Des Iles, Katie Walsh to ride. Won't run again before 14 April. Would probably need Soft ground or worse - very interesting if she got it.
Good stuff. She's been on my slip for two weeks - here's hoping...
THE FOLLOWING 14 ENTRIES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED: BRISTOL DE MAI (FR); NOBLE ENDEAVOR (IRE); VYTA DU ROC (FR); POLIDAM (FR); ABOLITIONIST (IRE); SILSOL (GER); THREE FACES WEST (IRE); SAMETEGAL (FR); VIEUX MORVAN (FR); ARBRE DE VIE (FR); BALLYALTON (IRE); MISSED APPROACH (IRE), BRAVISSIMO (FR); THEBARROWMAN (IRE)
The following entries need to start in a chase this season before the five-day confirmation stage on Monday, April 9 to qualify:
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT BELLSHILL (IRE) SAINT ARE (FR) MAGGIO (FR) PENDRA (IRE) MORNING ASSEMBLY (IRE) KNOCK HOUSE (IRE)
The following entries need to finish first, second, third or fourth in a chase with an official distance description of' two miles seven and a half furlongs' or more before Monday, March 19, to qualify:
THE FOLLOWING 14 ENTRIES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED: BRISTOL DE MAI (FR); NOBLE ENDEAVOR (IRE); VYTA DU ROC (FR); POLIDAM (FR); ABOLITIONIST (IRE); SILSOL (GER); THREE FACES WEST (IRE); SAMETEGAL (FR); VIEUX MORVAN (FR); ARBRE DE VIE (FR); BALLYALTON (IRE); MISSED APPROACH (IRE), BRAVISSIMO (FR); THEBARROWMAN (IRE)
The following entries need to start in a chase this season before the five-day confirmation stage on Monday, April 9 to qualify:
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT BELLSHILL (IRE) SAINT ARE (FR) MAGGIO (FR) PENDRA (IRE) MORNING ASSEMBLY (IRE) KNOCK HOUSE (IRE)
The following entries need to finish first, second, third or fourth in a chase with an official distance description of' two miles seven and a half furlongs' or more before Monday, March 19, to qualify:
TRAFFIC FLUIDE (FR) PAIROFBROWNEYES (IRE)
Cheers Len. Bellshill's just ticked the box - won the Bobbyjo Chase last Saturday. Going to Fairyhouse in preference to Aintree though (sadly).
Good looking set of entries for the Midlands National on 17 March, including those with some hope of lining up for the GN:
• American • Chase The Spud (last year's winner off 17lbs lower OR - seemingly now in Phil's grip) • Saint Are (seems an unlikely GN prep for him unless forced there by the weather) • Houblon Des Obeaux • Final Nudge • Milansbar (will probably try to make every yard with blinkers again and could easily succeed over an extra 1f compared to the Eider) • Carole's Destrier (having a stinker of a season and running off 8lbs lower OR than he would at Aintree - shit or bust at Uttoxeter surely for him if he's to go for the GN)
Plenty of very able and/or up-and-coming rivals, including: • Baywing - impressive winner of the Eider (OR +9lbs - manageable IMHO, based on the way he finished the race at Newcastle) • Yala Enki - "Grand National Trial" winner, or rather last horse capable of putting one hoof in front of another on the bog that is "Haydock heavy" • The much-ballyhooed Beware The Bear • Theatre Guide - seemingly ever-present but seldom-winning • Alfie Spinner - 13 years young and game 2nd in the Welsh GN.
As regards a GN prep, the Midlands National hasn't seen a connection since Mon Mome ran in it 3 weeks before his 2009 GN win. Prior to that, you have to go back to the 1990s for any connection with a runner making the frame in the subsequent GN - most notably: Lord Gyllene (2nd in it, 3 weeks before 1997 GN win) and Just So had his final prep in it prior to his 4th and close 2nd in the 1992 and 1994 GNs. Also, Laura's Beau (won MN, 3rd GN 1992) and Call It A Day (2nd & 3rd 1999).
The recent lack of connection partly reflects, like the Eider, fewer trainers wanting to give their GN runners such a potentially-gruelling test in the weeks before Aintree. Perhaps the 4 week gap this year will change things a little.
Comments
But, if he's fit and has his ground, he's every chance of running another big race off a similar absolute weight (between -1 and, probably, +3lbs). Only Saint Are has sufficient weight-adjustment among last year's runners on paper to challenge him and there was only horse that beat him (4.5L) who doesn't return.
Given that 4 of the last 6 winners didn't (won't) return (injury or retirement), for what it's worth, the recent record of winners nearly following-up the following year off higher OR increases ain't that shabby.
Hedgehunter (2005, 11.01): 2nd (11.12) in 2006 OR+12lbs
Comply Or Die (2008, 10.09): 2nd (11.06) in 2009 OR+15lbs
Don't Push It (2010, 11.05): 3rd (11.10) in 2011 OR+7lbs
Very happy to have him on my slip each-way at 20/1 NRNB anyway (should have done him earlier!). If he goes well in the X-C and it's decent ground at Aintree, he could well be challenging for favouritism near single figures on the day.
He probably goes against a million things in Peanuts' model, and is now a little on the old side I would presume, but I was really taken with how he beat out the likes of Cantlow, Tiger Roll, and Josies Orders (the latter two are favoured ahead of him for the XC which is surprising).
Either way, 50/1 NRNB seems like a punt worth taking, and equally worth taking is the 12s available in a couple of places for the Cross Country at Cheltenham next month.
Black Apalachi - did not run
Oscar Time - did not run
Sunnyhillboy - UR (OR+10lbs, weight +13lbs)
Cappa Bleu - did not run
Balthazar King - F when prominent at 8th (OR & weight+3lbs)
Saint Are - PU on ground way too soft (OR+3lbs, weight -1lb)
The Last Samuri - 16th (OR+12lbs, weight +16lbs)
Cause Of Causes may well not win it but I don't think these, very limited, stats suggest that a 3lb rise in OR and up to 3lb rise in absolute weight would be the reason.
21 of the top 76 in the weights for Aintree have an entry:
Edwulf
Outlander
Anibale Fly
Mala Beach
Total Recall
Alpha Des Obeaux
Noble Endeavor
Acapella Bourgeois
Bellshill
Rathvinden
Tiger Roll
A Genie In Abottle
Ucello Conti
Baie des Iles
Pleasant Company
Polidam
Childrens List
Morning Assembly
Road To Riches
Thunder & Roses
Bless The Wings
Not inconceivable to run in both. Ebony Jane was 3rd in the Irish, just 5 days (!) before coming home 4th on testing ground at Aintree in 1994.....what a dame!!
Unlikely these days, unless exiting early.
I'm really sorry Chief but, given the horses you've backed, it seems like you thought that my post meant add one to the list to back for the GN. It actually meant add one to the list in the previous post, meaning one of the 22 entries for Aintree that's also entered for the Irish. Meaning that he may (it is only a may, nothing definite) have a different target than Aintree.
I'm really sorry for the confusion.
That said, if he runs (as he may well still do - lots of British-trained horses were entered for the Irish last year but only 2 ran), American's a bloody nice horse ......(and my recent GN record is full of near-misses rather than winner
Saint Are the pick for me as I think it has a great shot at placing but think it might fall just short of winning
Seeyouatmidnight for the win
So congratulations Peanut, picking well
Saint Are missed the veterans' chase at Donny yesterday (unknown reason), in which Carole's Destrier ran disappointingly once again (off the bridle early - no sign in 3 runs this season of the horse that ran Native River so close in the 2016 Hennessy). Has to be a doubt over him lining up at Aintree.
Race was won by one of Dr Newland's stable - for a smaller yard, he continues to have an excellent season (27% win rate in 56 chases - 57% making the frame). Just get Abolitionist ready!!!
Maybe not be the link there once was but the 25f Ultima and 26f Kim Muir handicap chases have been decent preps for the GN over the years and the 4 week gap this time makes it ideal time-wise. A strong run's not essential, just a respectable spin.
Record of GN winners and runners-up since 1988 to run in either:
• 1990: Mr Frisk (GN winner) 4th in KM (3 weeks gap)
• 1991: Seagram (GN winner) Won Ritz Club Chase (now Ultima) (3 weeks)
• 1992: Romany King (GN 2.5L 2nd) 4th in Ritz Club (3 weeks)
• 1996: Encore Un Peu (GN 1.25L 2nd) Close 2nd in the KM (2 weeks)
• 2002: Bindaree (GN winner) 7th (33L) in William Hill Chase (Ultima) (3 weeks)
• 2009: Comply Die (GN 2nd) 25L 7th in the WH (3 weeks)
• 2012: Sunnyhillboy (GN 2nd by a nose) carried 11.11 to win the KM (4 weeks).
Plus Laura’s Beau (1992), Fiddlers Pike (1994), Romany King (1995), Camelot Knight (1997), St Mellion Fairway (1998), Niki Dee (2000), Liberthine (2007), Hello Bud (2010), old faithful Swing Bill (2013) and Monbeg Dude (2015), all ran in one or other prior to making 3rd~6th in the subsequent GN.
Kim Muir 2018 entries (26f, OR 0-145), also in the top 76 in the GN weights:
• Carole’s Destrier
• Abolitionist (yeah!)
• Buywise
• Pendra
• Wild West Wind
• Final Nudge
• Vintage Clouds
All but Abolitionist also have entries in the Ultima (25f, no OR limit), joined by the following also in the GN top 76:
• American
• Gold Present
• Perfect Candidate
• O O Seven
• Shantou Flyer
• Go Conquer
• Vicente
• Rock The Kasbah
• Seeyouatmidnight
• Tenor Nivernais
• Traffic Fluide
• Double Ross
• Sametegal
Of course, 13 of the 27 Gold Cup entries are also entered for the GN (though they include 2 from the list above).
It's often said that a run at the Festival isn't compatible with horses running to their best at Aintree. One could argue the toss forever about what the stats really show but here they are (at least for those that ran well at Aintree after a spin in the GC):
Those who preceded a strong run in the GN (including 4 winners) with a run in the Gold Cup, since 1988:
1988: 1st Rhyme N Reason (Fell at the 19th GC) (3 weeks gap)
1989: 2nd West Tip (5th GC) and 3rd The Thinker (Fell GC) (3 weeks)
1991: 2nd Garrison Savannah (won GC) (3 weeks)
1992: 4th Docklands Express (1L 3rd GC) (3 weeks)
1994: 1st Miinnehoma (7th GC) (3 weeks)
1995: 4th Dubacilla (2nd GC) (3 weeks)
1996: 1st Rough Quest (4L 2nd GC) (2 weeks)
1998: 2nd Suny Bay (5th GC) (2 weeks)
1999: 4th Addington Boy (5th GC) (3 weeks)
2002: 2nd Whatsupboys (5th GC) (3 weeks)
2005: 2nd Royal Auclair (4th GC) (3 weeks)
2007: 2nd Hedgehunter (2.5L 2nd GC) (3 weeks)
2009: 3rd My Will (5th GC) (3 weeks)
2015: 1st Many Clouds (6th GC) (4 weeks)
It’s going be a really interesting week at Cheltenham, even if you have just an eye on Aintree.
This year's (2.45 Newcastle) has 3 GN entries (CHASE THE SPUD, HOUBLON DES OBEAUX and MILANSBAR) at the top of the card and some interesting young stayers further down (particularly Vinne Lewis and Hainan). Throw in an old favourite in the shape of 13 year-old former-winner Portrait King in a near-maximum field of 17 and it's highly recommended viewing if you're not going to be at The Valley.
Comply Or Die won this with top-weight before taking the Big One 10 years ago .............seems like yesterday
Prior to that, there was a good and regular connection between a creditable run in the Newcastle marathon and making the frame at Aintree: Into The Red (1995), Superior Finish (1996), Samlee (1998) and Feels Like Gold (1999).
You'd be forgiven for thinking it isn't much of a guide for Aintree these days but the fact is that, other than Comply or Die attempting another double in his final 2 chases before retirement in 2011, only one Eider since 2008 has seen any runners line up at the subsequent GN - 2015 (x2), when Portrait King was running a huge race at Aintree, with the leaders, before falling 3 out.
Meanwhile it's Racing Post (nka Betdaq) Chase day at Kempton (3.35), another one with formerly-decent but now even more distant connection to the GN. It's not since Rough Quest's 1996 RP Chase and GN wins that any runner in this has made the frame at Aintree. GO CONQUER and AS DE MEE have the GN also in their sights today.
Over the puddle, it's Bobbyjo Chase day (3.30 Fairyhouse).
The promising BELLSHILL returns from a long lay-off to take on fellow GN entries A GENIE IN ABOTTLE and MALA BEACH and 3 other rivals. Fittingly, the Bobbyjo Chase is probably the most popular and significant Irish prep for GN contenders. Hedgehunter won both the Bobbyjo and GN in 2005, Snowy Morning made the frame in both in 2008, as did Black Apalachi in 2010, and Oscar Time ran in it both times prior to his 2nd and 4th in the 2011 and 2013 GNs.
To my mind, at the weights, BELLSHILL (33/1 NRNB for Aintree and 4/7 today) could well have the best chance of all Mullins' potential GN runners (including current joint fav. TOTAL RECALL). Like GOLD PRESENT, his inexperience over fences means that he won't make my slip but both are somewhat reminiscent on the stats to King John's Castle (who was one of my model's selections and was 2nd in the 2008 GN). Unlike Henderson's steed (11.00) and his Hennessy-winning stablemate (11.01), BELLSHILL's allotted 10.07 for the GN makes him resilient to a weight-rise and, though he's also entered for the Irish GN and Mullins has concerns about his relative inexperience, a strong run today on Soft-Heavy could see him very "well-in" if he takes his chance at Aintree, with the stats to put in a bold show, if no cigar.
Whether you're shivering at the Valley or with a bevvy in the warm to watch the racing and rugby, ENJOY!!
COYR.
Sky Sports reports:
Abolitionist out of Grand National at Aintree
Abolitionist has been ruled out of the Randox Health Grand National after failing to recover from injury.
The 10-year-old showed some high-class form when trained in Ireland by Ellmarie Holden last season, finishing second to Empire Of Dirt in the Troytown Chase at Navan before landing the Leinster National at Naas and finishing third in the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse.
Having since being snapped up by Dr Richard Newland, who claimed National glory with Pineau De Re in 2014, he was as short as 20-1 for the Aintree spectacular on April 14, but he will not be lining up in the world's most famous steeplechase this year.
Newland told Press Association Sport: "He had a little problem earlier in the season and we've been trying to get him right, but unfortunately we've just run out of time.
"We entered him over hurdles at Ascot earlier in the month, but it's just in the last week or two that we've discovered he isn't quite right and we've got to back off and give him time.
"He'll have the rest of the season off and we'll have another go with him next season."
The only consolation would be if it means that Final Nudge gets a run.
West Of The Edge (Newland's runner!!) 2nd and the old boy Portrait King staying on into 3rd..... 13 years old, what a star.
Poor effort from Houblon Des Obeaux, slightly less so from Chase The Spud - both PU'd.
Not a bad run from Go Conquer at Kempton but nothing to get excited about GN-wise.
EDIT
Irish GN is preferred target for Bellslife, according to Mullins after his comeback win today. You might actually win it one of these years Willie.
To recap, the 4 carrying my shillings and Mrs Molloy’s hopes for a cruise next winter are (in no particular order):
• CAUSE OF CAUSES (20/1 e/w NRNB)
• SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT (33/1 e/w NRNB)
• FINAL NUDGE (66/1 e/w)
• BLESS THE WINGS (50/1 e/w NRNB)
If Bless The Wings appeals to you, it’s strongly recommended to back him NRNB (even though Paddy Power pay 6 places 1/5 odds, they’re not NRNB) as he also has an entry for the Irish GN. Having just missed the cut for Aintree last year (would have been on my slip) and being borderline to make it this time at # 66~70, Elliott may play safe and run him again at Fairyhouse, 12 days earlier than Aintree this year.
Final Nudge and Bless The Wings both need at least 26 to come out above them to get a run in the GN (distinctly possible but not a given). Both allotted the same OR143 (currently 10.02) along with 3 others, they will be ranked according to their updated ORs prior to final declarations. So, performance in their final prep could be significant and every reason to suppose that Bless The Wings will be primed to run a big one in the Festival XC (albeit at a disadvantage with some rivals off level weights).
BLESS THE WINGS (13-10-02)
• Stamina proven. 2nd in last 2 Irish GNs (short head in 2016 on Y/Soft). Both times, preceded by excellent runs (again 2nd both times) in the Festival X-Country.
• Versatile as to going (many fine runs on decent ground and 29f win on testing)
• He has never fallen or unseated in 44 chases.
• A GN debutant but handled the fences well enough over an inadequate trip when completing in a fast-pace Topham 3 years ago (mistake at Bechers when squeezed up but this was prior to his XC career).
• 13 year old but so too was Vics Canvas (3rd in 2016 GN – might have won but for a near-fall at Bechers). BTW has many more miles on the clock than did Vic but he appears as good as ever, winning the December XC at Cheltenham in style (matching a career-best RPR152, last attained as a 7 year-old)
• Nicely-weighted. Phil Smith may have interpolated his XC and course ORs to give him OR143 but on both XC and relevant course form he’s even stevens with fancied stable-mates Cause Of Causes (on their runs at level weights at the last Festival) and Noble Endeavor (with Abolitionist scratched, his probable only rival from April’s Irish GN)
• Absolute weight is highly relevant in marathon handicaps and, even if the weights rise, BTW will carry a very winnable one (probable max. 10.06)
• 3 runs in the season, likely to make it 4 at the Festival, 31 days prior, is in the sweet spot stats-wise.
I have to say that this year’s GN is a particularly odd and tricky one to weigh-up from a stats perspective.
Final Nudge and Bless The Wings (and my soft-ground reserve Raz De Maree) have had decent campaigns as regards both quality and quantity of outings but, as noted, both may miss the cut.
Others with strong GN profiles stamina-wise have had light (or non-existent) campaigns. That's not a particular issue for Cause Of Causes (or my decent-ground reserve, Saint Are - both 1 ordinary run), as the stats for those returning with strong prior GN experience don’t preclude another strong show regardless, providing they’re reasonably weighted and sound, of course.
A doubt clearly hangs over Seeyouatmidnight. He's reported to be on course for his return to the track at Kelso or the Festival and has a good record “fresh” but it isn’t ideal GN stats-wise for a runner who's never seen the GN fences to line up with just 1 prior outing in the season (and of course the infamous “bounce” is possible).
What of the others (in the top 70) that made my short-list?
With the exception of Vicente (who fell at the 1st last GN and seems likely to head to Ayr again rather than Aintree) and Raz De Maree (soft ground a must), at the weights and assuming typical GN going of GS, I prefer Cause Of Causes and Saint Are of those that ran last time, though several could run huge races (particularly Gas Line Boy, Regal Encore and possibly, if it came up soft and the weight-rise is minimal, Perfect Candidate).
As noted in a previous post, most GN winners are race debutants (all of the last 8 were - 6 of them also course debutants) and the rest of my short-list comprised 6 lining up in a GN for the first time (in weights’ order):
• Total Recall (9-11-01) – what can be said that hasn’t been already? Fine run in a fast run Hennessy (nka Ladbroke Trophy) but, in hindsight, was handily-weighted for that and his Munster National win. Pedigree suggests he should get further and allotted 11.01 (9lb higher mark) gives him a chance stats-wise but the prospect of a weights rise (maybe up to 11.05) means he’d have to put in a strong show in the Gold Cup to give him a GN winning profile. Possible but at 10/1 for Aintree, no thanks.
• Gold Present (8-11-00) – inexperienced but highly progressive, handled the GN fences with aplomb before an unlucky departure at the Canal Turn in April’s Topham. Fine win in only attempt at 3m, winning or near-missing in 5 from 7 chases (unlucky stumble to add to unlucky fall at Aintree). Vaguely reminiscent of King John Castle’s profile (2nd 2008 GN), he could run a huge race but stats-wise, even if he were to score in the Ultima, as he may well, carrying 11.00 suggests no cigar at Aintree and a 2lb+ rise in the weights would count heavily against. 20/1 is short enough.
• Noble Endeavor (9-10-13) – fine 6th in last Irish GN (5L behind 2nd Bless The Wings), capping off an excellent season (won Paddy Power Chase, placed earlier in Troytown and later in Ultima Chase at Cheltenham) and was going well (probably a place at best) when falling late in the 4m Novice chase at the 2016 Festival. However, again, no run since last April and no entry at Cheltenham. A prep in Ireland said to be in the plans. Not dissimilar to fellow course-debutant Seeyouatmidnight (stamina proven, current fitness not) but Noble Endeavor’s chances are more vulnerable to a weight rise according to the stats. 25/1 NRNB.
• Bellshill (8-10-07) – mentioned yesterday, ran impressively in the Bobbyjo and would have been a lively chance off a light weight but Irish GN now the stated target.
• Baie Des Iles (7-10-04) – out-and-out stayer, 6th (15L) in the 2016 Irish GN, 5th (23L) in the 2016 Welsh GN, made the frame in 5 of 6 other 3m+ chases (won 2), all on Soft or heavy. Nice weight to carry (10.04) and likely to make the cut (also entered for Fairyhouse and weather likely to determine the target). A 7 year-old French-bred mare – last 7 y-o GN winner was in 1940 and last mare to win it was in 1951. However, if it’s a bog get on!! 66/1 NRNB (80/1 ante-post 5 places)
• I Just Know (8-10-04) – promising young and tough stayer, winner of January’s 3m6f North Yorkshire GN (OR 0-140) with 11.10 on Soft. Made the frame in 8 of 9 chases at 3m+, albeit in modest company (5 wins/near-miss). Stamina also evident in pedigree but OR raised 14lbs as a result of his Catterick win. Handles any ground but some meaningful cut would assist. Could run a huge race but, if he makes the line up, Final Nudge appears to have a pull at the weights based on their run at Ayr last April. Attracted a lot of early money at bigger prices post-weights, but still not to be overlooked at 50/1 NRNB.
Many apologies.
The following entries need to start in a chase this season before the five-day confirmation stage on Monday, April 9 to qualify:
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT
BELLSHILL (IRE)
SAINT ARE (FR)
MAGGIO (FR)
PENDRA (IRE)
MORNING ASSEMBLY (IRE)
KNOCK HOUSE (IRE)
The following entries need to finish first, second, third or fourth in a chase with an official distance description of' two miles seven and a half furlongs' or more before Monday, March 19, to qualify:
TRAFFIC FLUIDE (FR)
PAIROFBROWNEYES (IRE)
Bellshill's just ticked the box - won the Bobbyjo Chase last Saturday. Going to Fairyhouse in preference to Aintree though (sadly).
• American
• Chase The Spud (last year's winner off 17lbs lower OR - seemingly now in Phil's grip)
• Saint Are (seems an unlikely GN prep for him unless forced there by the weather)
• Houblon Des Obeaux
• Final Nudge
• Milansbar (will probably try to make every yard with blinkers again and could easily succeed over an extra 1f compared to the Eider)
• Carole's Destrier (having a stinker of a season and running off 8lbs lower OR than he would at Aintree - shit or bust at Uttoxeter surely for him if he's to go for the GN)
Plenty of very able and/or up-and-coming rivals, including:
• Baywing - impressive winner of the Eider (OR +9lbs - manageable IMHO, based on the way he finished the race at Newcastle)
• Yala Enki - "Grand National Trial" winner, or rather last horse capable of putting one hoof in front of another on the bog that is "Haydock heavy"
• The much-ballyhooed Beware The Bear
• Theatre Guide - seemingly ever-present but seldom-winning
• Alfie Spinner - 13 years young and game 2nd in the Welsh GN.
As regards a GN prep, the Midlands National hasn't seen a connection since Mon Mome ran in it 3 weeks before his 2009 GN win.
Prior to that, you have to go back to the 1990s for any connection with a runner making the frame in the subsequent GN - most notably: Lord Gyllene (2nd in it, 3 weeks before 1997 GN win) and Just So had his final prep in it prior to his 4th and close 2nd in the 1992 and 1994 GNs. Also, Laura's Beau (won MN, 3rd GN 1992) and Call It A Day (2nd & 3rd 1999).
The recent lack of connection partly reflects, like the Eider, fewer trainers wanting to give their GN runners such a potentially-gruelling test in the weeks before Aintree. Perhaps the 4 week gap this year will change things a little.
Promises to be a good race regardless.