Actually, one that does catch the eye down the weights is WALK IN THE MILL. Rated 141 and currently #76 on the list, he may not get in, but looks on a nice mark. Concern that his wins have come in small fields but arguably his best run came when 3rd in a 14 runner race.
He's been stepped up to three miles this season and beat Brandon Hill by seven lengths at Ascot on his first attempt at the trip and fairly bowled away at the end of the race to suggest there was more in the tank still. That horse was just beaten the other week by Bigbadjohn with the pair 27 lengths clear of the third. His next start was back at Ascot where he finished 3rd behind Gold Present who is high up in the market for this, and Frodon who bolted up at Cheltenham next time off a 3lbs higher mark.
He pulled up last time but that was on heavy ground at Haydock (his form on heavy has seen him finish beaten 12 lengths and 34 lengths on the other two occasions he's run on it).
Looks on a workable mark, and some dosage experts (I'm not a fan of it but some swear by it) tell me he has the pedigree to suggest a National is within his compass. He's 66/1 with bookmakers and wild prices on the exchanges. He was sent off 9/1 at Haydock and seems to be a bit forgotten off the back of that run.
One thing that struck me when looking at the market this year was whether everyone seems to have forgotten that this is still a handicap?!
A bloody difficult one too given that it is 10/1 the field and 20/1 bar two!
First angle that struck me was how highly rated those at the front of the market are - 161,156,159,153,165,155,162. You've obviously got to assess each horse on their merits in relation to their mark but only Many Clouds and Neptune Collonges have won off those sort of marks and not sure Blaklion, Definitly Red and The Last Samuri are in that bracket.
Got to be looking at finding something below 150, that's 8-11yo and stays. From looks of it they will be overpriced!!!
I am a big fan of Seeyouatmidnight and have backed it at 33/1 (NRNB).
Seeyouatmidnight - rated 149 currently on 10-8, 3rd in the Scottish National and a 10 year old. Beat Bristol De Mai off level weights by 12l and also has defeated Blaklion in receipt of 3lbs by more than 3 lengths.
It won't be 33/1 come the day if it runs and if it doesn't then NRNB applies.
Think he's been off with a tendon injury which would ring alarm bells for me personally! But if back he does have a nice profile for it agreed
Runs on the 3rd March at Kelso - if it runs well there it will shorten but if it doesn't then it won't run so, with NRNB, it is, effectively a bet to nothing.
One thing that struck me when looking at the market this year was whether everyone seems to have forgotten that this is still a handicap?!
A bloody difficult one too given that it is 10/1 the field and 20/1 bar two!
First angle that struck me was how highly rated those at the front of the market are - 161,156,159,153,165,155,162. You've obviously got to assess each horse on their merits in relation to their mark but only Many Clouds and Neptune Collonges have won off those sort of marks and not sure Blaklion, Definitly Red and The Last Samuri are in that bracket.
Got to be looking at finding something below 150, that's 8-11yo and stays. From looks of it they will be overpriced!!!
I am a big fan of Seeyouatmidnight and have backed it at 33/1 (NRNB).
Seeyouatmidnight - rated 149 currently on 10-8, 3rd in the Scottish National and a 10 year old. Beat Bristol De Mai off level weights by 12l and also has defeated Blaklion in receipt of 3lbs by more than 3 lengths.
It won't be 33/1 come the day if it runs and if it doesn't then NRNB applies.
Think he's been off with a tendon injury which would ring alarm bells for me personally! But if back he does have a nice profile for it agreed
Runs on the 3rd March at Kelso - if it runs well there it will shorten but if it doesn't then it won't run so, with NRNB, it is, effectively a bet to nothing.
One thing that struck me when looking at the market this year was whether everyone seems to have forgotten that this is still a handicap?!
A bloody difficult one too given that it is 10/1 the field and 20/1 bar two!
First angle that struck me was how highly rated those at the front of the market are - 161,156,159,153,165,155,162. You've obviously got to assess each horse on their merits in relation to their mark but only Many Clouds and Neptune Collonges have won off those sort of marks and not sure Blaklion, Definitly Red and The Last Samuri are in that bracket.
Got to be looking at finding something below 150, that's 8-11yo and stays. From looks of it they will be overpriced!!!
The only caveat I'd add PN is that there is a premium for being a course-lover, especially for each-way punters. Price is key, of course. Blaklion's too short and I don't place any stock in NTD's (vaguely sacrilegious IMHO) Red Rum analogy and the "we'll ride him differently" blah blah - he didn't get home on decent ground with 11.01 and, while he may run another big one being held-up, there'll be no cigar with 11.06+). However, while he won't be one of my team, there are much worse e/w candidates than The Last Samuri at 25s (still only a 10y-o). Like Raz De Maree, he was spooked last year when being stuck in the stupid tunnel they now have to go through to get to the track. No chance with Blakion at the weights in the Becher but it confirmed he's adept over the fences and he should be there or thereabouts off the same OR159 - though also unlikely to win. Has an interesting prep lined up in the Festival XC.
Thought I read that they were going to go straight there with Last Samuri, but maybe wrong!
Having said what I did earlier, I'm struggling to fin anything to get too excited with lower down in the weights! I love Vicente but worry about his jumping and sounds like they are going to go for Scottish National again. Interesting that Hemmings has bought Warrior's Tale and he's one on my horizon at the moment. Probably best to let dust settle over the next few weeks and get extra places - though I see Paddy Power are already 1/5 first 6.
I think Bailey's said he doesn't need a prep but they're aiming to give him one. May or may not be the X-C, of course, but it's an interesting entry (though not at 6/1 as a debutant in that race!). Not going to be on my slip anyway at Aintree but, as I say, in my view at 25s plenty worse e/w candidates - just don't get stuck behind Lord Windermere heading out from the paddock this time! Share your views entirely about Vicente - shame.
One thing that struck me when looking at the market this year was whether everyone seems to have forgotten that this is still a handicap?!
A bloody difficult one too given that it is 10/1 the field and 20/1 bar two!
First angle that struck me was how highly rated those at the front of the market are - 161,156,159,153,165,155,162. You've obviously got to assess each horse on their merits in relation to their mark but only Many Clouds and Neptune Collonges have won off those sort of marks and not sure Blaklion, Definitly Red and The Last Samuri are in that bracket.
Got to be looking at finding something below 150, that's 8-11yo and stays. From looks of it they will be overpriced!!!
I am a big fan of Seeyouatmidnight and have backed it at 33/1 (NRNB).
Seeyouatmidnight - rated 149 currently on 10-8, 3rd in the Scottish National and a 10 year old. Beat Bristol De Mai off level weights by 12l and also has defeated Blaklion in receipt of 3lbs by more than 3 lengths.
It won't be 33/1 come the day if it runs and if it doesn't then NRNB applies.
OK, sold. I'm on NRNB. Was also concerned about his injury last season but, as you say AA, he's said to be on course for Kelso (Ballabriggs' regular prep for the GN). Can't add much to your analysis, other than stamina box ticked by his 3L 3rd in the Scot Nat off the same OR149 2 years ago. He was beaten that day by fast-finishing Vicente and Alvarado but raced a bit free early-on and fluffed the last. 2 years older and a prep in a quality chase should hopefully see him right, if he remains sound. As you say, NRNB gives protection if not. Just hope there's no "bounce" if he goes well at Kelso. 7 wins from just 15 races under rules (4 from 8 over fences). Versatile as to going but probably GS would suit best for trip and if he's had a suspensory problem. No worries if the weights rise.
Blimey, first time since Cappa Bleu we've been on the same steed......proper jockey this time
Cheers to Vics Canvas - retirement annoucned today. Have a long and happy one old fella The greatest recovery from nearly being on the deck in the race since the great Rhyme N Reason
Cause Of Causes is the ante post bet for me at this moment on form and weights Also have backed Regal Encore as I know that this has been his aim since last years race when he stayed on to finish 8th
For anyone thinking about arbing at a big price make sure you have plenty of money in your Betfair account. If you put £100 on a 33/1 horse with a bookie and lay it at 20/1 you will need £3245.80 in Betfair to make a profit of £54
@Robbo on the wing ; @PolzeathNick ; @Addick Addict ; @PeanutsMolloy and @len90 - thank you very much for taking the time to run me through the do’s, dont’s, possibilities and impossibilities of my question. Will give it some thought, especially based on AA’s superb explanation but it does appear hugely capital intensive for a relatively small reward potentially so may just stick to tips on here.
Whilst I am not hugely into horse racing I do love this thread each year and the depth and breadth of knowledge and excellence that a number of posters here have. I tend to have followed PM’s tips in the past but may broaden my horizon this year!
@Robbo on the wing ; @PolzeathNick ; @Addick Addict ; @PeanutsMolloy and @len90 - thank you very much for taking the time to run me through the do’s, dont’s, possibilities and impossibilities of my question. Will give it some thought, especially based on AA’s superb explanation but it does appear hugely capital intensive for a relatively small reward potentially so may just stick to tips on here.
Whilst I am not hugely into horse racing I do love this thread each year and the depth and breadth of knowledge and excellence that a number of posters here have. I tend to have followed PM’s tips in the past but may broaden my horizon this year!
Wise man. There's an amazing number of smart cookies on this Forum when it comes to shrewd bets. Don't forget @killer kish and @alan dugdale who could well be on to a winner. Best of luck.
Interesting change of plans for Total Recall - skipping Bobbyjo to have a crack at the GC. 4 weeks gap to Aintree so a tilt at the GN still viable (Mullins ran Hedgehunter in GC and GN, 2nd in both, when only 3 weeks apart in 2006). Nonetheless, interesting that GC is the new target.
Cause Of Causes is the ante post bet for me at this moment on form and weights Also have backed Regal Encore as I know that this has been his aim since last years race when he stayed on to finish 8th
Cause of Causes races XC next, doesn't he? Thought that would be the main target.
I'm quietly intrigued by Baie des Iles at pretty long odds - young but a sound jumper, so as and when bookies start to offer a stupid number of places I'll tilt each way, which would effectively be a 5/1 shot that she a) completes the course; and b) does so in the top 40% or finishers.
Cause Of Causes is the ante post bet for me at this moment on form and weights Also have backed Regal Encore as I know that this has been his aim since last years race when he stayed on to finish 8th
Cause of Causes races XC next, doesn't he? Thought that would be the main target.
I'm quietly intrigued by Baie des Iles at pretty long odds - young but a sound jumper, so as and when bookies start to offer a stupid number of places I'll tilt each way, which would effectively be a 5/1 shot that she a) completes the course; and b) does so in the top 40% or finishers.
Won the X-C last year before his GN 2nd and an extra weeks gap this time so both likely to be targets. Way back, Elliott used the X-C as a prep for Silver Birch before his 2007 GN win. CoC has a bloody good chance at Aintree - my finger's poised!!
Bet365 now also NRNB 5 places e/w 1/4. Cheers Bob! Fuck it. I'll take a chance on the weather. Cause of Causes added at 20s e/w NRNB So much for patience. If he does the biz in the X-C (4/1 unsurprisingly for that) he'll go off close to single digits for the GN.
Once upon a time I would never have said this about a female jockey (because the majority of those in a bygone era were the equivalent of a sack of potatoes in the saddle), but the excellent Byrony Frost has been booked to ride your name sake in the first at Sandown, Paddy's Poem - and 15/2 seems a decent price on what is the horse's handicap debut.
I've no idea on horse racing, i'll do what I do every year and get my daughter to pick a horse, she wins more often than me. Including the 66-1 winner a few years back with a £25 free bet!
Does anyone know if any bookies are paying 6 places e/w this early out? With money back if a non runner if poss...My usual BetVictor are only paying 5 this year
Does anyone know if any bookies are paying 6 places e/w this early out? With money back if a non runner if poss...My usual BetVictor are only paying 5 this year
Paddy Power are going 6 places but I don't believe that they are NRNB - best with NRNB are Bet 365 and Skybet who are 5 places. Bet 365 are also best odds guaranteed too.
Does anyone know if any bookies are paying 6 places e/w this early out? With money back if a non runner if poss...My usual BetVictor are only paying 5 this year
Paddy Power are going 6 places but I don't believe that they are NRNB - best with NRNB are Bet 365 and Skybet who are 5 places. Bet 365 are also best odds guaranteed too.
Comments
Spot on though - The GN, The Boat Race and The Masters are all like switches that turn on summer.
He's been stepped up to three miles this season and beat Brandon Hill by seven lengths at Ascot on his first attempt at the trip and fairly bowled away at the end of the race to suggest there was more in the tank still. That horse was just beaten the other week by Bigbadjohn with the pair 27 lengths clear of the third. His next start was back at Ascot where he finished 3rd behind Gold Present who is high up in the market for this, and Frodon who bolted up at Cheltenham next time off a 3lbs higher mark.
He pulled up last time but that was on heavy ground at Haydock (his form on heavy has seen him finish beaten 12 lengths and 34 lengths on the other two occasions he's run on it).
Looks on a workable mark, and some dosage experts (I'm not a fan of it but some swear by it) tell me he has the pedigree to suggest a National is within his compass. He's 66/1 with bookmakers and wild prices on the exchanges. He was sent off 9/1 at Haydock and seems to be a bit forgotten off the back of that run.
Not going to be on my slip anyway at Aintree but, as I say, in my view at 25s plenty worse e/w candidates - just don't get stuck behind Lord Windermere heading out from the paddock this time!
Share your views entirely about Vicente - shame.
Was also concerned about his injury last season but, as you say AA, he's said to be on course for Kelso (Ballabriggs' regular prep for the GN).
Can't add much to your analysis, other than stamina box ticked by his 3L 3rd in the Scot Nat off the same OR149 2 years ago. He was beaten that day by fast-finishing Vicente and Alvarado but raced a bit free early-on and fluffed the last. 2 years older and a prep in a quality chase should hopefully see him right, if he remains sound. As you say, NRNB gives protection if not. Just hope there's no "bounce" if he goes well at Kelso.
7 wins from just 15 races under rules (4 from 8 over fences).
Versatile as to going but probably GS would suit best for trip and if he's had a suspensory problem.
No worries if the weights rise.
Blimey, first time since Cappa Bleu we've been on the same steed......proper jockey this time
I always think horse racing is a bit like the stock market, those on the inside usually do far better than those on the outside.
The greatest recovery from nearly being on the deck in the race since the great Rhyme N Reason
https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/obrien-salutes-veteran-vics-canvas-as-2015-national-third-is-retired/319653
Also have backed Regal Encore as I know that this has been his aim since last years race when he stayed on to finish 8th
Whilst I am not hugely into horse racing I do love this thread each year and the depth and breadth of knowledge and excellence that a number of posters here have. I tend to have followed PM’s tips in the past but may broaden my horizon this year!
Best of luck.
4 weeks gap to Aintree so a tilt at the GN still viable (Mullins ran Hedgehunter in GC and GN, 2nd in both, when only 3 weeks apart in 2006). Nonetheless, interesting that GC is the new target.
I'm quietly intrigued by Baie des Iles at pretty long odds - young but a sound jumper, so as and when bookies start to offer a stupid number of places I'll tilt each way, which would effectively be a 5/1 shot that she a) completes the course; and b) does so in the top 40% or finishers.
CoC has a bloody good chance at Aintree - my finger's poised!!
Fuck it. I'll take a chance on the weather. Cause of Causes added at 20s e/w NRNB
So much for patience. If he does the biz in the X-C (4/1 unsurprisingly for that) he'll go off close to single digits for the GN.
The national always seems a lottery to me.