For those who have backed Houblons Des Obeaux, some good news. Venetia Williams, who has been in luke warm form this winter, has just enjoyed a cross the card double making it four winners from 16 in the last 14 days.
skybet are 6 places currently i have ( thanks to our regular gn nuts on here ).
seeyouatmidnight @ 33/1 ew milansbar @ 33/1 ew chase the spud @ 66/1 ew houblon des obeaux @ 100/1 ew
some quite good races on the Thursday, Friday aswell love the gn only downside is the end of the jumps is upon us then its flat which i personally don't have much interest in.
skybet are 6 places currently i have ( thanks to our regular gn nuts on here ).
seeyouatmidnight @ 33/1 ew milansbar @ 33/1 ew chase the spud @ 66/1 ew houblon des obeaux @ 100/1 ew
some quite good races on the Thursday, Friday aswell love the gn only downside is the end of the jumps is upon us then its flat which i personally don't have much interest in.
skybet are 6 places currently i have ( thanks to our regular gn nuts on here ).
seeyouatmidnight @ 33/1 ew milansbar @ 33/1 ew chase the spud @ 66/1 ew houblon des obeaux @ 100/1 ew
some quite good races on the Thursday, Friday aswell love the gn only downside is the end of the jumps is upon us then its flat which i personally don't have much interest in.
skybet are 6 places currently i have ( thanks to our regular gn nuts on here ).
seeyouatmidnight @ 33/1 ew milansbar @ 33/1 ew chase the spud @ 66/1 ew houblon des obeaux @ 100/1 ew
some quite good races on the Thursday, Friday aswell love the gn only downside is the end of the jumps is upon us then its flat which i personally don't have much interest in.
Being a betting novice, could someone answer a question please. Bet365 says 1/4 odds. Sky bet says 1/5 odds... so if you go £5 each way (total £10) and let’s say the horse was 50/1 and placed but did not win then am I right in saying Bet365 pays £62.50 plus stake and Sky £50 plus stake? ie the quarter or fifth odds is only on half your total stake?
As such in Palarsehaters post above the trade off is an extra place (6th) v’s a lower return even if the ‘odds’ quoted are the same should the horse finish 2-5th
skybet are 6 places currently i have ( thanks to our regular gn nuts on here ).
seeyouatmidnight @ 33/1 ew milansbar @ 33/1 ew chase the spud @ 66/1 ew houblon des obeaux @ 100/1 ew
some quite good races on the Thursday, Friday aswell love the gn only downside is the end of the jumps is upon us then its flat which i personally don't have much interest in.
Being a betting novice, could someone answer a question please. Bet365 says 1/4 odds. Sky bet says 1/5 odds... so if you go £5 each way (total £10) and let’s say the horse was 50/1 and placed but did not win then am I right in saying Bet365 pays £62.50 plus stake and Sky £50 plus stake? ie the quarter or fifth odds is only on half your total stake?
As such in Palarsehaters post above the trade off is an extra place (6th) v’s a lower return even if the ‘odds’ quoted are the same should the horse finish 2-5th
Correct. An each way bet is effectively two bets. Let's say we've gone a fiver e/w on a horse at 40/1:
- £5 on the win. This, if our horse wins, pays out £205
- £5 to place. This, if our horse finishes in the top [number], pays out at a fraction of the odds:
a) 1/4 the odds = 10/1 = £55 b) 1/5 the odds = 8/1 = £45
Essentially, the first bet (to win) is a losing bet, if your horse only places. That stake is lost.
Hope I've made it crystal clear, even if I've got a bit "explain like you're 5" on it all.
skybet are 6 places currently i have ( thanks to our regular gn nuts on here ).
seeyouatmidnight @ 33/1 ew milansbar @ 33/1 ew chase the spud @ 66/1 ew houblon des obeaux @ 100/1 ew
some quite good races on the Thursday, Friday aswell love the gn only downside is the end of the jumps is upon us then its flat which i personally don't have much interest in.
Being a betting novice, could someone answer a question please. Bet365 says 1/4 odds. Sky bet says 1/5 odds... so if you go £5 each way (total £10) and let’s say the horse was 50/1 and placed but did not win then am I right in saying Bet365 pays £62.50 plus stake and Sky £50 plus stake? ie the quarter or fifth odds is only on half your total stake?
As such in Palarsehaters post above the trade off is an extra place (6th) v’s a lower return even if the ‘odds’ quoted are the same should the horse finish 2-5th
Correct. An each way bet is effectively two bets. Let's say we've gone a fiver e/w on a horse at 40/1:
- £5 on the win. This, if our horse wins, pays out £205
- £5 to place. This, if our horse finishes in the top [number], pays out at a fraction of the odds:
a) 1/4 the odds = 10/1 = £55 b) 1/5 the odds = 8/1 = £45
Essentially, the first bet (to win) is a losing bet, if your horse only places. That stake is lost.
Hope I've made it crystal clear, even if I've got a bit "explain like you're 5" on it all.
You haven't covered equally divided (each-way, all each-way) multiples ;-)
skybet are 6 places currently i have ( thanks to our regular gn nuts on here ).
seeyouatmidnight @ 33/1 ew milansbar @ 33/1 ew chase the spud @ 66/1 ew houblon des obeaux @ 100/1 ew
some quite good races on the Thursday, Friday aswell love the gn only downside is the end of the jumps is upon us then its flat which i personally don't have much interest in.
Being a betting novice, could someone answer a question please. Bet365 says 1/4 odds. Sky bet says 1/5 odds... so if you go £5 each way (total £10) and let’s say the horse was 50/1 and placed but did not win then am I right in saying Bet365 pays £62.50 plus stake and Sky £50 plus stake? ie the quarter or fifth odds is only on half your total stake?
As such in Palarsehaters post above the trade off is an extra place (6th) v’s a lower return even if the ‘odds’ quoted are the same should the horse finish 2-5th
Correct. An each way bet is effectively two bets. Let's say we've gone a fiver e/w on a horse at 40/1:
- £5 on the win. This, if our horse wins, pays out £205
- £5 to place. This, if our horse finishes in the top [number], pays out at a fraction of the odds:
a) 1/4 the odds = 10/1 = £55 b) 1/5 the odds = 8/1 = £45
Essentially, the first bet (to win) is a losing bet, if your horse only places. That stake is lost.
Hope I've made it crystal clear, even if I've got a bit "explain like you're 5" on it all.
You haven't covered equally divided (each-way, all each-way) multiples ;-)
For good reason - cos I never place them, and cos they're an arsehole to figure out returns on!
For those who have backed Houblons Des Obeaux, some good news. Venetia Williams, who has been in luke warm form this winter, has just enjoyed a cross the card double making it four winners from 16 in the last 14 days.
Ms Williams actually had a 1209/1 fourtimer today and a 7/1 2nd too!
Going Stick reading 5.0 for the GN course at mid-day today. That compares to 6.6 last year (rode as Good ground), 6.0 (proper GS) in 2013 and, from memory, 4.4 for the 2016 GN on Soft (heavy places). BBC & Accuweather both forecast showers every day prior to Saturday. Nice weather for ducks and long shots.
Peanuts... with so many horses on your shortlist have you considered backing them for a place on Betfair instead of E/W with a bookie? I know they only pay four places but the odds are considerably better than betting E/W and you potentially have four winners.
It's certainly a viable approach to go place only but, over the years, I've come to prefer a combination of scaled e/w bets with the bookies (also has the advantage of NRNB, which Betfair doesn't offer before decs) and the Betfair place market to top up the place returns on each (albeit only for the first 4 places) to give me a little better than break even if one of mine places. For me, the 5th place from the bookies is pretty valuable (if it weren't for that I'd probably look to construct a better returns profile via Betfair alone) but, whereas the Win market on Betfair typically offers higher (sometimes significantly higher) prices than bookies, in my experience the Betfair place market doesn't tend to, precisely because people like to back long shots place only. In any event, doing all my stat crunching, I'm always going to go for the winner (and hopefully a place or even two) because my stats assessment indicates each could be that winner on their ground. Personally I want to have the full upside on a 50/1+ winner. I accept there's lost win portions on the others of course. I scale my bets so as to be broadly indifferent which one does the business. Obviously, fortune (or lack of misfortune) plays a crucial role. Having said that, I have accumulated an extra interest in HDO to win at wild prices on Betfair so, to be honest, would be especially keen to see him bag it, as would Mrs Molloy (a cabin upgrade for The Jewels of the Med ) Of course, there's different ways to skin the proverbial. You pays your money, you takes your choice. Best of luck @len90
I take your point Peanuts but the way i see it is if you back four horses E/W you must lose at least three of your win bets whereas if you back four at place only you could win them all. Anyway best of luck.
I take your point Peanuts but the way i see it is if you back four horses E/W you must lose at least three of your win bets whereas if you back four at place only you could win them all. Anyway best of luck.
Doesn't make alot of sense, i am sure you might be slightly better off if you place 3/4 but with no upswing of the winner. Seems like an option only if you dont really back the win and going on the longest odds. As Peanuts says each toe their own, dont see much value in it myself.
Thought I'd put a quick odds summary out there of some of the horses discussed more prominently in this thread lately:
- Baie Des Iles is now 25/1 pretty much across the board. I like this a lot. If you weren't on ages ago, then I think the value boat has been missed.
- Houblon Des Obeaux's ridiculous 125/1 (or 100/1) is now 50s or 66s. We like this a lot, too.
- Bless The Wings has drifted after two incompletions. Only as far as 66/1 though. Not good, but not a disaster.
- Final Nudge is trimmed to 50s, 40s in places, yet a couple of firms still offer 66/1. I'd get on that where possible.
- Milansbar has pretty much held steady at 33s. Similar for Vieux Lion Rouge, Regal Encore, and Raz De Maree (40s)
- I Just Know has trimmed slightly to 25s.
- Seeyouatmidnight - now 16/1 from 33/1 following prep run at Newbury and being purchased by former GN winning owners. Probably more value now in the 12/1 on offer for it to go off favourite!
Comments
seeyouatmidnight @ 33/1 ew
milansbar @ 33/1 ew
chase the spud @ 66/1 ew
houblon des obeaux @ 100/1 ew
some quite good races on the Thursday, Friday aswell love the gn only downside is the end of the jumps is upon us then its flat which i personally don't have much interest in.
As such in Palarsehaters post above the trade off is an extra place (6th) v’s a lower return even if the ‘odds’ quoted are the same should the horse finish 2-5th
- £5 on the win. This, if our horse wins, pays out £205
- £5 to place. This, if our horse finishes in the top [number], pays out at a fraction of the odds:
a) 1/4 the odds = 10/1 = £55
b) 1/5 the odds = 8/1 = £45
Essentially, the first bet (to win) is a losing bet, if your horse only places. That stake is lost.
Hope I've made it crystal clear, even if I've got a bit "explain like you're 5" on it all.
That compares to 6.6 last year (rode as Good ground), 6.0 (proper GS) in 2013 and, from memory, 4.4 for the 2016 GN on Soft (heavy places).
BBC & Accuweather both forecast showers every day prior to Saturday.
Nice weather for ducks and long shots.
For me, the 5th place from the bookies is pretty valuable (if it weren't for that I'd probably look to construct a better returns profile via Betfair alone) but, whereas the Win market on Betfair typically offers higher (sometimes significantly higher) prices than bookies, in my experience the Betfair place market doesn't tend to, precisely because people like to back long shots place only.
In any event, doing all my stat crunching, I'm always going to go for the winner (and hopefully a place or even two) because my stats assessment indicates each could be that winner on their ground. Personally I want to have the full upside on a 50/1+ winner. I accept there's lost win portions on the others of course.
I scale my bets so as to be broadly indifferent which one does the business. Obviously, fortune (or lack of misfortune) plays a crucial role.
Having said that, I have accumulated an extra interest in HDO to win at wild prices on Betfair so, to be honest, would be especially keen to see him bag it, as would Mrs Molloy (a cabin upgrade for The Jewels of the Med
Of course, there's different ways to skin the proverbial. You pays your money, you takes your choice.
Best of luck @len90
- Baie Des Iles is now 25/1 pretty much across the board. I like this a lot. If you weren't on ages ago, then I think the value boat has been missed.
- Houblon Des Obeaux's ridiculous 125/1 (or 100/1) is now 50s or 66s. We like this a lot, too.
- Bless The Wings has drifted after two incompletions. Only as far as 66/1 though. Not good, but not a disaster.
- Final Nudge is trimmed to 50s, 40s in places, yet a couple of firms still offer 66/1. I'd get on that where possible.
- Milansbar has pretty much held steady at 33s. Similar for Vieux Lion Rouge, Regal Encore, and Raz De Maree (40s)
- I Just Know has trimmed slightly to 25s.
Final nudge 50/1 NRNB - EW
Vintage Clouds 40/1 NRNB- EW
Ones done previously:
HDO @ 100/1 EW
Vieux @ 33/1 EW - double standard bet
Seeyouatmidnight @25/1 EW - Again double bet
Think that will be the lot now, hopefully the winner is amongst them