For those who have backed Houblons Des Obeaux, some good news. Venetia Williams, who has been in luke warm form this winter, has just enjoyed a cross the card double making it four winners from 16 in the last 14 days.
Ms Williams actually had a 1209/1 fourtimer today and a 7/1 2nd too!
Just a 218/1 treble today making it 7 winners from 13 runners (11 races) in the last two days.
Don't know JP or Jonjo's thinking but you couldn't rule out Minella Rocco being scratched and the weights going up another 1lb. Vicente should head to Ayr. Walk In The Mill could yet line up.
Blimey. Going Stick reading today was 3.7. May well improve by Saturday but that's more testing than it was for the Becher Chase in December and only once since 2008 has a race been run over the course on worse than 3.7 (2012 Becher Chase on heavy won by Hello Bud - 3.6).
Of course, the irony of the Red Marauder GN, run on virtually unraceable ground, is that Red Marauder had never won a chase beyond 2 miles 5 furlongs and no race at 3m+. He'd failed 4 times in 3m+ chases and fallen at Bechers first-circuit in the previous GN. Pre-model days but I was on Smarty (and others) that day and I remember thinking when it was just the pair of them left standing that all he has to do is get round (he only had 10.00 to carry - no way Red Marauder was going to outstay him) ....... what do I know? Nonetheless, it was a farce of a race. So, what about 2018? Cardinal rule for using trends in the GN: NEVER eliminate a runner purely on 1 stat. They said Mon Mome couldn't win because he was French-bred. No French-bred winner to date - yes but there had been several who had come mighty close, e.g. close 2nds (<3L) Encore Un Peu, Mely Moss and Clan Royal [should have won it]). They said, once upon a time (it seems an age ago), that carrying 11.00+ ruled you out - yes but consider those with big weights (even top-weight) making the frame, even coming close to winning previously. Based on representation in the race, the frame-making stats for runners with big weights were actually no weaker than others, pre-Smith's tinkering with the GN handicap. Especially if it is Soft or worse, don't eliminate a runner on the basis of age alone - apparently funky results are the order of the day. What matters is the overall blend of stat-profile. So, though it's a factor, I will happily ignore the "rule" that demands that we put a line through a horse because it's a 13 y-o or 7 y-o. In my view, it’s entirely down to the horse’s current capability and specific suitability for the trip and conditions. After all, a 13 y-o may not have won it since 1923 but, on Soft ground in 2016, Vics Canvas was 3rd as a 13y-o and might have won if he hadn't almost fallen at Bechers. Spoke volumes for his race-capability that day that he recovered from it to be ahead at the last. It might be counter-intuitive but race-history also shows that a big absolute weight is not the “stopper” it’s assumed to be on testing ground, providing your horse definitely gets the trip: • 2006 (Soft) – Hedgehunter (former winner on GS with 11.01) 2nd (6L) with top-weight of 11.12 • 1998 (Heavy) - Suny Bay (former 2nd on Good with 10.03) 2nd (11L) with top-weight of 12.00 • 1989 (Heavy) – The Thinker 3rd (7.5L) with 11.10 The fact is that the conditions thin-out the competition to such a degree that single-stat rules are irrelevant. He’s too short a price for my team but don’t rule out the 2016 runner-up The Last Samuri (16/1 drifting to 18s) from making the frame again. He loves the course, got the trip on Soft and could well do a "Suny Bay" under a huge weight.
However, there are several way down the weights with the strongest stats for stamina, including on this ground, and the best overall profiles for the likely conditions – at least one of which should avoid misfortune to come home in front – and, despite the Red Marauder case, these are the ones to be on IMHO. I will do a summary of all of their profiles after the final decs tomorrow but they’ve all been listed previously (and, in my case, backed at 50~125/1). In race-card order: • Raz De Maree • I Just Know • Baie Des Iles • Houblon Des Obeaux • Milansbar • Final Nudge • Vintage Clouds On their profiles (again in race card order) Perfect Candidate, Tiger Roll, Chase The Spud, Seeyouatmidnight, Gas Line Boy, Bless The Wings and Delusionofgrandeur all have good stats for this ground but, for different reasons and to differing degrees, not as strong as those for the 7 above or The Last Samuri.
Of course, the irony of the Red Marauder GN, run on virtually unraceable ground, is that Red Marauder had never won a chase beyond 2 miles 5 furlongs and no race at 3m+. He'd failed 4 times in 3m+ chases and fallen at Bechers first-circuit in the previous GN. Pre-model days but I was on Smarty (and others) that day and I remember thinking when it was just the pair of them left standing that all he has to do is get round (he only had 10.00 to carry - no way Red Marauder was going to outstay him) ....... what do I know? Nonetheless, it was a farce of a race. So, what about 2018? Cardinal rule for using trends in the GN: NEVER eliminate a runner purely on 1 stat. They said Mon Mome couldn't win because he was French-bred. No French-bred winner to date - yes but there had been several who had come mighty close, e.g. close 2nds (
This is astonishing research. Of course, it helps that Peanuts probably wasn't seven years old like I was for Red Marauder, but this is absolutely phenomenal work.
^ Genuinely mean that. Take away the subject matter as much as is possible, focus on the logic; methodology; use of statistics; and other such reasoning - and you've basically got a template for essays and report writing and all sorts.
Johnnybev he was a very impressive winner of his bumper at Huntingdon but the trainer keeps reminding us he will be even better over hurdles and fences so make of that what you will? Me personally I’m expecting a big run.............but then I’m not the trainer!
Peanuts - any thoughts on the chances of Alpha Des Obeaux...?
I'm a big ADO fan - classy horse - but this is totally not his sort of ground imo, and he's been relatively out of sorts. This sort of trip is also a massive step into the unknown - yes he rode the Irish GN to eighth last year, but behind both Thunder and Roses and Bless The Wings by 18/15 lengths or so respectively. That was on good to soft.
I don’t want to sound too confident as poor bobmunro lost his years bonus on one of my other horses Oxford Blu at Cheltenham..................... I just hope we get more luck in running after Oxford Blu nearly getting brought down at Cheltenham and having to be pulled up not lying after. To be honest this really is living the dream having runners at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals
I don’t want to sound too confident as poor bobmunro lost his years bonus on one of my other horses Oxford Blu at Cheltenham..................... I just hope we get more luck in running after Oxford Blu nearly getting brought down at Cheltenham and having to be pulled up not lying after. To be honest this really is living the dream having runners at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals
Blimey - fancy losing a million quid on one horse!
Comments
However, as 7 year olds go, BDI ticks all the boxes. I refer you to Peanuts' post at the very top of Page 10 of this thread.
The National is very much a stat/trends race
Get ready for a funky result folks.
Don't know JP or Jonjo's thinking but you couldn't rule out Minella Rocco being scratched and the weights going up another 1lb.
Vicente should head to Ayr.
Walk In The Mill could yet line up.
May well improve by Saturday but that's more testing than it was for the Becher Chase in December and only once since 2008 has a race been run over the course on worse than 3.7 (2012 Becher Chase on heavy won by Hello Bud - 3.6).
http://api.turftrax.co.uk/maps/going-reports/124673_waypoints.svg?1523398582
Pre-model days but I was on Smarty (and others) that day and I remember thinking when it was just the pair of them left standing that all he has to do is get round (he only had 10.00 to carry - no way Red Marauder was going to outstay him) ....... what do I know? Nonetheless, it was a farce of a race.
So, what about 2018?
Cardinal rule for using trends in the GN: NEVER eliminate a runner purely on 1 stat.
They said Mon Mome couldn't win because he was French-bred. No French-bred winner to date - yes but there had been several who had come mighty close, e.g. close 2nds (<3L) Encore Un Peu, Mely Moss and Clan Royal [should have won it]).
They said, once upon a time (it seems an age ago), that carrying 11.00+ ruled you out - yes but consider those with big weights (even top-weight) making the frame, even coming close to winning previously. Based on representation in the race, the frame-making stats for runners with big weights were actually no weaker than others, pre-Smith's tinkering with the GN handicap.
Especially if it is Soft or worse, don't eliminate a runner on the basis of age alone - apparently funky results are the order of the day. What matters is the overall blend of stat-profile.
So, though it's a factor, I will happily ignore the "rule" that demands that we put a line through a horse because it's a 13 y-o or 7 y-o. In my view, it’s entirely down to the horse’s current capability and specific suitability for the trip and conditions.
After all, a 13 y-o may not have won it since 1923 but, on Soft ground in 2016, Vics Canvas was 3rd as a 13y-o and might have won if he hadn't almost fallen at Bechers. Spoke volumes for his race-capability that day that he recovered from it to be ahead at the last.
It might be counter-intuitive but race-history also shows that a big absolute weight is not the “stopper” it’s assumed to be on testing ground, providing your horse definitely gets the trip:
• 2006 (Soft) – Hedgehunter (former winner on GS with 11.01) 2nd (6L) with top-weight of 11.12
• 1998 (Heavy) - Suny Bay (former 2nd on Good with 10.03) 2nd (11L) with top-weight of 12.00
• 1989 (Heavy) – The Thinker 3rd (7.5L) with 11.10
The fact is that the conditions thin-out the competition to such a degree that single-stat rules are irrelevant.
He’s too short a price for my team but don’t rule out the 2016 runner-up The Last Samuri (16/1 drifting to 18s) from making the frame again. He loves the course, got the trip on Soft and could well do a "Suny Bay" under a huge weight.
However, there are several way down the weights with the strongest stats for stamina, including on this ground, and the best overall profiles for the likely conditions – at least one of which should avoid misfortune to come home in front – and, despite the Red Marauder case, these are the ones to be on IMHO.
I will do a summary of all of their profiles after the final decs tomorrow but they’ve all been listed previously (and, in my case, backed at 50~125/1). In race-card order:
• Raz De Maree
• I Just Know
• Baie Des Iles
• Houblon Des Obeaux
• Milansbar
• Final Nudge
• Vintage Clouds
On their profiles (again in race card order) Perfect Candidate, Tiger Roll, Chase The Spud, Seeyouatmidnight, Gas Line Boy, Bless The Wings and Delusionofgrandeur all have good stats for this ground but, for different reasons and to differing degrees, not as strong as those for the 7 above or The Last Samuri.
Duhallow Gesture
Me personally I’m expecting a big run.............but then I’m not the trainer!
Probably not his year this year.
I just hope we get more luck in running after Oxford Blu nearly getting brought down at Cheltenham and having to be pulled up not lying after.
To be honest this really is living the dream having runners at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals