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Grand National 2018 Thread

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  • Surely total recall is going to win , i loved that film!
  • Just traded Final Nudge at Bet365 50/1 for Ladbrokes who gave me a boost to 80/1. Nice.
  • Kevin Blake's put up Baie Des Iles. Hm. Maybe I should give this tipster lark a try... http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/kevin-blake/09-April-2018
  • PaddyP17 said:

    Kevin Blake's put up Baie Des Iles. Hm. Maybe I should give this tipster lark a try... http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/kevin-blake/09-April-2018

    No 7 year old has won a National since 1940
  • len90 said:

    PaddyP17 said:

    Kevin Blake's put up Baie Des Iles. Hm. Maybe I should give this tipster lark a try... http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/kevin-blake/09-April-2018

    No 7 year old has won a National since 1940
    And a woman jockey's never won it, and only three greys have ever won it... Yes.

    However, as 7 year olds go, BDI ticks all the boxes. I refer you to Peanuts' post at the very top of Page 10 of this thread.
  • Kevin Blake is a good tipster and worth following but the 7 year old stat would put me off
    The National is very much a stat/trends race
  • edited April 2018

    For those who have backed Houblons Des Obeaux, some good news. Venetia Williams, who has been in luke warm form this winter, has just enjoyed a cross the card double making it four winners from 16 in the last 14 days.

    Ms Williams actually had a 1209/1 fourtimer today and a 7/1 2nd too!
    Just a 218/1 treble today making it 7 winners from 13 runners (11 races) in the last two days.
  • BDI now 16/1 on Skybet, thanks to Peanuts I backed it at 50's a few days ago :smile:
  • Surely total recall is going to win , i loved that film!

    The Arnie original or the recent remake?
  • Surely total recall is going to win , i loved that film!

    The Arnie original or the recent remake?
    I can't recall
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  • edited April 2018
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/apr/10/grand-national-aintree-course-heavy-red-marauder-2001?CMP=share_btn_link

    Get ready for a funky result folks.

    Don't know JP or Jonjo's thinking but you couldn't rule out Minella Rocco being scratched and the weights going up another 1lb.
    Vicente should head to Ayr.
    Walk In The Mill could yet line up.
  • edited April 2018

    BDI now 16/1 on Skybet, thanks to Peanuts I backed it at 50's a few days ago :smile:

    Cheers @mistrollingin but @PaddyP17 is your man. He tipped her on here early doors.
  • edited April 2018
    Blimey. Going Stick reading today was 3.7.
    May well improve by Saturday but that's more testing than it was for the Becher Chase in December and only once since 2008 has a race been run over the course on worse than 3.7 (2012 Becher Chase on heavy won by Hello Bud - 3.6).

    http://api.turftrax.co.uk/maps/going-reports/124673_waypoints.svg?1523398582
  • BDI now 16/1 on Skybet, thanks to Peanuts I backed it at 50's a few days ago :smile:

    Cheers @mistrollingin but @PaddyP17 is your man. He tipped her on here early doors.
    Caveat emptor as always though! Can't be displeased with quite how sharply she's come in however.
  • Walk In The Mill out from 66-1 to 100-1 with bet365. Cashed in one for the other.
  • ...so, Walk In The Mill has little chance then, you think?
  • Of course, the irony of the Red Marauder GN, run on virtually unraceable ground, is that Red Marauder had never won a chase beyond 2 miles 5 furlongs and no race at 3m+. He'd failed 4 times in 3m+ chases and fallen at Bechers first-circuit in the previous GN.
    Pre-model days but I was on Smarty (and others) that day and I remember thinking when it was just the pair of them left standing that all he has to do is get round (he only had 10.00 to carry - no way Red Marauder was going to outstay him) ....... what do I know? Nonetheless, it was a farce of a race.
    So, what about 2018?
    Cardinal rule for using trends in the GN: NEVER eliminate a runner purely on 1 stat.
    They said Mon Mome couldn't win because he was French-bred. No French-bred winner to date - yes but there had been several who had come mighty close, e.g. close 2nds (

    This is astonishing research. Of course, it helps that Peanuts probably wasn't seven years old like I was for Red Marauder, but this is absolutely phenomenal work.
  • ^ Genuinely mean that. Take away the subject matter as much as is possible, focus on the logic; methodology; use of statistics; and other such reasoning - and you've basically got a template for essays and report writing and all sorts.
  • BDI now 16/1 on Skybet, thanks to Peanuts I backed it at 50's a few days ago :smile:

    Cheers @mistrollingin but @PaddyP17 is your man. He tipped her on here early doors.
    In that case, thank you Paddy.
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  • Off to Aintree tomorrow as one of my horses runs in the mares bumper
    Duhallow Gesture

    Confident? Good luck sir
  • Surely total recall is going to win , i loved that film!

    The Arnie original or the recent remake?
    Old school original, but back to the thread....
  • Maggio 100/1
  • Peanuts - any thoughts on the chances of Alpha Des Obeaux...?
  • Johnnybev he was a very impressive winner of his bumper at Huntingdon but the trainer keeps reminding us he will be even better over hurdles and fences so make of that what you will?
    Me personally I’m expecting a big run.............but then I’m not the trainer!
  • Peanuts - any thoughts on the chances of Alpha Des Obeaux...?

    I'm a big ADO fan - classy horse - but this is totally not his sort of ground imo, and he's been relatively out of sorts. This sort of trip is also a massive step into the unknown - yes he rode the Irish GN to eighth last year, but behind both Thunder and Roses and Bless The Wings by 18/15 lengths or so respectively. That was on good to soft.

    Probably not his year this year.
  • I don’t want to sound too confident as poor bobmunro lost his years bonus on one of my other horses Oxford Blu at Cheltenham.....................
    I just hope we get more luck in running after Oxford Blu nearly getting brought down at Cheltenham and having to be pulled up not lying after.
    To be honest this really is living the dream having runners at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals
  • Off to Aintree tomorrow as one of my horses runs in the mares bumper
    Duhallow Gesture

    killer - Honeyball stable seems to have gone very quiet with no winners and just 3 placed from 23 runners in the last 8 weeks?
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