I had Walk in the Mill £5 each way with Bet365, total £10. They have refunded £5...?
You would have already got £5 back immediately when you placed the bet as that’s the offer
I guess but before he pulled out I had £10 total on him and had reinvested the other £5 in another = total £15. Now I have £5 refunded and £5 reinvested in another = £10.
I have the bet amount I placed but have essentially not benefited from the offer and cannot cash out the reinvested money to do so.
Seeyouatmidnight 14/1 I Just Know 18/1 Baie Des Iles 18/1 Raz De Maree 25/1 Houblon Des Obeaux 33/1
Big thanks to Peanuts, Paddy, Polzeath and others for their tips/input. Certainly a learning experience while following and I might do well to jump on some of these selections earlier next year. :-)
Cheers as always PM, thread is an interesting read regardless of the result.
We always choose two horses each in our house and in previous years I've steered the kids into a couple of your choices (look, that one's pretty with the star etc) but they are old enough to have chosen their own ones now - luckily 3 of their 4 are still your choices! Two pink ones helped I think.
I've picked two others so we're 5 out of your 6 (so selfishly hoping Raz fails!).
Tell me I'm not the only one who thinks Maggio has an incredible chance today at 100/1? Won a 3m at Aintree back in 2016 as a 50/1 outsider by 12 lengths, now just 5lb higher, primed for the last 2 years but missed the cut/injury prevented, had a light campaign in preparation for this race but it's hard to forget the demolition job in 2016.
It occurs to me with the bet365 offer that you could well make a profit by backing each runner at a level stake, depending what odds horses finish in the top 5. Be interesting to work that out later.
Excellent article (aside from the nonsense about "No algorithm will ever predict the National winner......." ).
Makes me wonder what your thoughts are on things like the "virtual" Grand National? Lots of people writing the idea off as a nonsense but I'm not sure if they set the criteria/conditions right. They must use some sort of algorithm type process to come up with their predicted results, just with a fancy looking graphic to show off at the end.
As everyone knows, I'm a trend-user and that's been an evolutionary process but has been profitable for me every year since 2006 except for one (kiss of death for my fellas today, no doubt!). You shouldn't use stats for any race (incl the GN) in a crude, eliminate if stat-not-met fashion. You need to take a "blend" or "score-based" approach (IMHO) and so, yes, an algorithm is the way to go. Mine is manually run (I have a scoring-system that weights different stats differently according to going) - I couldn't write a computer programme to replicate this but no doubt there are wizzos who can. BUT, the big issue is the database. The other big difference between mine and most trend-following methods is that I take account of "near-missers" in GNs over the years and in a runner's CV. I think that is a key part of the explanation as to why some trend-followers give up when their key stats are broken and think it is indeed a "lottery", because they never take into account the "trends of the trends" and the fact that their key stat was very nearly broken in the past. So, I haven't a clue how sophisticated the ITV algorithm is (I gather it made a decent prediction last year) and, ulitmately, no system is immune to the "slings and arrows of outrageous fortune" that accompany every GN but, yes, I think a "virtual" GN can be valid.
Excellent article (aside from the nonsense about "No algorithm will ever predict the National winner......." ).
Makes me wonder what your thoughts are on things like the "virtual" Grand National? Lots of people writing the idea off as a nonsense but I'm not sure if they set the criteria/conditions right. They must use some sort of algorithm type process to come up with their predicted results, just with a fancy looking graphic to show off at the end.
So, I haven't a clue how sophisticated the ITV algorithm is.
If Reams has got anything to do with it, it's probably a pile of shyte!
Brilliant stuff as normal Peanuts and always a fantastic read,I’ve finally gone with the following Blaklion The Last Samuri Perfect Candidate Warriors Tale Captain Redbeard All ante post bets on Regal Encore bitten the dust and glad it’s very rare I Do ante post.............also today Chepstow 4.05 Kimberlite Candy Good luck to you all today
Haven't managed to follow this... Slipped off the radar. Who are the winners for the GN @PeanutsMolloy?
I'll do a summary (if you're interested) tomorrow but, in a nutshell, assuming that reserve #4 (Vintage Clouds) doesn't line up (unlikely), these are the 6 carrying my shillings (all each way 5 places 1/4 odds, though you can get 6 places 1/5 odds with some bookies if you prefer). I backed them all at 50~125/1 but I’m afraid prices have shortened massively for some. In race card order:
Raz De Maree (best price currently 33/1) I Just Know (25/1) Baie Des Iles (16/1) Houblon Des Obeaux (50/1) Milansbar (33/1) Final Nudge (66/1)
Still thinking the same peanuts? Off to the bookies in a bit.
I had Walk in the Mill £5 each way with Bet365, total £10. They have refunded £5...?
You would have already got £5 back immediately when you placed the bet as that’s the offer
I guess but before he pulled out I had £10 total on him and had reinvested the other £5 in another = total £15. Now I have £5 refunded and £5 reinvested in another = £10.
I have the bet amount I placed but have essentially not benefited from the offer and cannot cash out the reinvested money to do so.
You can’t total the reinvested money with the original stake. You had £10, got £5 back and once he pulled out, then got your other £5 back.
Haven't managed to follow this... Slipped off the radar. Who are the winners for the GN @PeanutsMolloy?
I'll do a summary (if you're interested) tomorrow but, in a nutshell, assuming that reserve #4 (Vintage Clouds) doesn't line up (unlikely), these are the 6 carrying my shillings (all each way 5 places 1/4 odds, though you can get 6 places 1/5 odds with some bookies if you prefer). I backed them all at 50~125/1 but I’m afraid prices have shortened massively for some. In race card order:
Raz De Maree (best price currently 33/1) I Just Know (25/1) Baie Des Iles (16/1) Houblon Des Obeaux (50/1) Milansbar (33/1) Final Nudge (66/1)
Still thinking the same peanuts? Off to the bookies in a bit.
Yeap, obviously the prices have come way in on some. I have a view about the most likely of those to do the biz but my nose is so unreliable (I managed to put AFKA off backing Mon Mome in 2009 even though he was on my slip) that I hesitate to rank them (fortune, or absence of misfortune, plays a huge part) and, in any event, my system scores them all as having the best (and broadly similar among themselves) winning profiles of the 38 runners. Cheers for the vote of confidence and good luck.
Tell me I'm not the only one who thinks Maggio has an incredible chance today at 100/1? Won a 3m at Aintree back in 2016 as a 50/1 outsider by 12 lengths, now just 5lb higher, primed for the last 2 years but missed the cut/injury prevented, had a light campaign in preparation for this race but it's hard to forget the demolition job in 2016.
You’re not the only one. May not win by 12 lengths today but it’s way overpriced.
Knew the miracle of Walk In The Mill getting in yesterday was too good to be true.
Fwiw gone with the following (in preference order)
Vieux Lion Rouge Ucello Conti Houblon Des Obeaux Milansbar
Hit crossbar last few days with Calino D'Airy and Bedrock both backed at massive prices going close. Hope for a turn in fortunes today.
On the rest of the card thought Identity Thief looked big price. Ran in Champion like he looked in need of going up in trip, and pedigree offers confidence too. 20/1+ is cheap play to find out, and at his best he'd laugh at this rabble.
Chanced Shantou Rock against Petit Mouchoir, likes tight tracks, ran Sceau Royal close last time and fav had savage race at Cheltenham.
Tell me I'm not the only one who thinks Maggio has an incredible chance today at 100/1? Won a 3m at Aintree back in 2016 as a 50/1 outsider by 12 lengths, now just 5lb higher, primed for the last 2 years but missed the cut/injury prevented, had a light campaign in preparation for this race but it's hard to forget the demolition job in 2016.
Hope your right.Drawn in pub sweep and thought it was a no hoper. Thanks for the great thread Peanuts
Tell me I'm not the only one who thinks Maggio has an incredible chance today at 100/1? Won a 3m at Aintree back in 2016 as a 50/1 outsider by 12 lengths, now just 5lb higher, primed for the last 2 years but missed the cut/injury prevented, had a light campaign in preparation for this race but it's hard to forget the demolition job in 2016.
Hope your right.Drawn in pub sweep and thought it was a no hoper. Thanks for the great thread Peanuts
Much appreciate the thought Chief but lots of savvy Addicks making great contributions to make this thread. Cheers everyone.
I can't really argue with Peanuts' results so stuck a couple of quid each way on all 6 thanks for the tips! Don't suppose you got a football model as well have you!? lol Anyway good luck to one and all wherever your money is going today folks.
Peanuts - that’s an incredibly consistent record over quite a long period. As ever, superbly knowledgable analysis coupled with modesty making it the best thread on this forum. It’s a shame the political threads don’t have the same traits but there you go. Best of luck Peanuts (and everyone else).
Comments
Peanuts, thanks for another year of great insight and good luck to all. Let's hope all horses make it home safe.
Seeyouatmidnight 14/1
I Just Know 18/1
Baie Des Iles 18/1
Raz De Maree 25/1
Houblon Des Obeaux 33/1
Big thanks to Peanuts, Paddy, Polzeath and others for their tips/input. Certainly a learning experience while following and I might do well to jump on some of these selections earlier next year. :-)
We always choose two horses each in our house and in previous years I've steered the kids into a couple of your choices (look, that one's pretty with the star etc) but they are old enough to have chosen their own ones now - luckily 3 of their 4 are still your choices! Two pink ones helped I think.
I've picked two others so we're 5 out of your 6 (so selfishly hoping Raz fails!).
The wife picked two of her own. The cheek!
You shouldn't use stats for any race (incl the GN) in a crude, eliminate if stat-not-met fashion. You need to take a "blend" or "score-based" approach (IMHO) and so, yes, an algorithm is the way to go.
Mine is manually run (I have a scoring-system that weights different stats differently according to going) - I couldn't write a computer programme to replicate this but no doubt there are wizzos who can. BUT, the big issue is the database.
The other big difference between mine and most trend-following methods is that I take account of "near-missers" in GNs over the years and in a runner's CV. I think that is a key part of the explanation as to why some trend-followers give up when their key stats are broken and think it is indeed a "lottery", because they never take into account the "trends of the trends" and the fact that their key stat was very nearly broken in the past.
So, I haven't a clue how sophisticated the ITV algorithm is (I gather it made a decent prediction last year) and, ulitmately, no system is immune to the "slings and arrows of outrageous fortune" that accompany every GN but, yes, I think a "virtual" GN can be valid.
Blaklion
The Last Samuri
Perfect Candidate
Warriors Tale
Captain Redbeard
All ante post bets on Regal Encore bitten the dust and glad it’s very rare I Do ante post.............also today
Chepstow 4.05 Kimberlite Candy
Good luck to you all today
I have a view about the most likely of those to do the biz but my nose is so unreliable (I managed to put AFKA off backing Mon Mome in 2009 even though he was on my slip) that I hesitate to rank them (fortune, or absence of misfortune, plays a huge part) and, in any event, my system scores them all as having the best (and broadly similar among themselves) winning profiles of the 38 runners.
Cheers for the vote of confidence and good luck.
A palace in Monaco
And a chateau in France
3 Lamborghini
2 Ferrari’s
• 2007: 2nd (0.75L) (McKelvey)
• 2008: winner (Comply Or Die), 2nd (King Johns Castle) & 4th (Slim Pickings)
• 2009: winner (Mon Mome)
• 2010: winner (Don’t Push It), 4th (Big Fella Thanks), 5th (Hello Bud) & 6th (Snowy Morning)
• 2011: 2nd (Oscar Time) & 4th (State Of Play)
• 2012: 2nd (Nose - aghh!!) (Sunnyhillboy)
• 2013: 2nd (Cappa Bleu), 3rd (Teaforthree) & 6th (Swing Bill)
• 2014: 6th (Chance Du Roy) (screwed up my data input for the winner, Pineau De Re, which should have put him on my slip – 4th best rated)
• 2015: 3rd (Monbeg Dude)
• 2016: 3rd (Vics Canvas)
• 2017: 2nd (Cause Of Causes) & 3rd (Saint Are)
Struggled a bit post-race modifications after 2012 and overdue a winner. Fingers crossed.
Fwiw gone with the following (in preference order)
Vieux Lion Rouge
Ucello Conti
Houblon Des Obeaux
Milansbar
Hit crossbar last few days with Calino D'Airy and Bedrock both backed at massive prices going close. Hope for a turn in fortunes today.
On the rest of the card thought Identity Thief looked big price. Ran in Champion like he looked in need of going up in trip, and pedigree offers confidence too. 20/1+ is cheap play to find out, and at his best he'd laugh at this rabble.
Chanced Shantou Rock against Petit Mouchoir, likes tight tracks, ran Sceau Royal close last time and fav had savage race at Cheltenham.
Best of luck to all!
no hoper. Thanks for the great thread Peanuts
Cheers everyone.
As ever, superbly knowledgable analysis coupled with modesty making it the best thread on this forum.
It’s a shame the political threads don’t have the same traits but there you go.
Best of luck Peanuts (and everyone else).
Let's hope the rest of the day is more profitable!
Can’t find odds on the maxi vs Sam fight tonight are you guys covering it