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Summer 2019 Transfer Rumours (ed. Pg 296 - Start of Deadline Day)

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  • So lets see about Liam Bridcutt.
    Is age 30, late for most midfielders. He has 1 goal in 178 matches in The Championship over his whole career. He was signed by Sunderland for £4.2M in 2014 and has since been sold for less than that twice by clubs wanting to offload him and now this will be offload number three. He is not good enough for another team in our own division and after looking at the Forest Forum page, no one there will miss him.
    I call that a "pass."

    Not fair to judge him on goals, the bloke is a defensive midfielder. And there will be numerous players deemed not good enough for our Championship rivals who could do a job for us. 
    Perhaps. But I trust their own fans, who have seen him in person for some time. Not one person on their board want him back. That alone is good enough for me. His value in Transfermarkt has dropped 4 straight years, a bad sign, And paying a transfer fee to get a midfielder who will be 31 this season is very unlikely to be a wise investment, in my opinion.
    I know nowt about him but no one on the Leicester boards had a decent thing to say about Yann when he joined us and he was exceptional and should undoubtedly have played PL football for longer than he did IMO.
  • NapaAddick
    NapaAddick Posts: 4,657
    edited July 2019
    So lets see about Liam Bridcutt.
    Is age 30, late for most midfielders. He has 1 goal in 178 matches in The Championship over his whole career. He was signed by Sunderland for £4.2M in 2014 and has since been sold for less than that twice by clubs wanting to offload him and now this will be offload number three. He is not good enough for another team in our own division and after looking at the Forest Forum page, no one there will miss him.
    I call that a "pass."

    Not fair to judge him on goals, the bloke is a defensive midfielder. And there will be numerous players deemed not good enough for our Championship rivals who could do a job for us. 
    Perhaps. But I trust their own fans, who have seen him in person for some time. Not one person on their board want him back. That alone is good enough for me. His value in Transfermarkt has dropped 4 straight years, a bad sign, And paying a transfer fee to get a midfielder who will be 31 this season is very unlikely to be a wise investment, in my opinion.
    I know nowt about him but no one on the Leicester boards had a decent thing to say about Yann when he joined us and he was exceptional and should undoubtedly have played PL football for longer than he did IMO.
    So the old... "there is one exception way over here, way back when, that disproves the multitude of studies that say the contrary" theory? ;)

    It's the same thing I was mentioning in another thread... people always find one or two outliers and then project that fallacy out that the basic argument is flawed. Mountains of studies show players peak by age 25-27 and generally start declining afterwards. One study even shows the peak is 23-25. (Defenders peak between 25-29, across studies, as do keepers.) By age 30 you are taking a real big risk, not just with quality but with injuries too. I do not wish to hope we are the outlier-geniuses that find the diamond in the rough that disproves the aggregate of facts and odds.

    We are a small club and to fight the very established odds (to me) is a big mistake. We need to go with the odds and make every player count, not hope some 30-31 year old being told he can leave another club in our division because he is not good enough is somehow going to morph from a frog to a swan under Lee's care. For a transfer fee no less. At least that is how I see it. If anyone wants links to data and studies on when football players peak, PM me. I have studies by universities, economists and FIFA, itself, for those interested.
  • Alwaysneil
    Alwaysneil Posts: 13,811
    Redhenry said:
    What would the debt be if we had got the true value for those players?
    Yeah this bothers me too. Lot of comments about how any sell in clause or increase in value would have gone to Roland’s back pocket.

    I reckon he’s an idiot and wants to try and recover close to what he has laid out, even though much of what he has laid out was due to his own poor decisions or those of his supervised staff.

    the lower the amount he feels he has lost, the lower the asking price.
      
    now I know this isn’t normally the way acquisitions work. You pay as acquirer what you think the business is worth and, if there is some untapped value there maybe a bit more to meet the seller’s needs and to close the deal.

    what you never do is pay well over 
  • Not a rumour but a player I'd like to see is Tom Adeyemi. Mr sick note but signed for big clubs and only 27. Unattached.
  • Pelling1993
    Pelling1993 Posts: 6,675
    cafc-west said:
    Watched him play a couple of times last season for Hythe, he was far too good for the Bostick South-East
  • NapaAddick
    NapaAddick Posts: 4,657
    We do have a sell on clause for Lookman, correct? If we do and he pockets it, Rat might actually break-even in 2019-20. Which worries me because it means he can keep holding out like a jerk. In his mind he is playing with house money and without a loss facing him, he might well wait til season's end and see if he can lure new buyers at a higher price. Of course that is dumb but this is Roland we are talking about.

    £10M operating loss in 2018-19 (based on estimates)

    +£6M in "solidarity payments" in The Championship (Airman)
    +£1M in additional matchday due to higher ST sales
    +£3M in sell on fee for Lookman?
    -----
    £0 Loss in 2019-2020.
  • Fanny Fanackapan
    Fanny Fanackapan Posts: 18,740
    cafc-west said:
    Anyone recommend a nice B & B for Lord & Lady Irving's next seaside break ? 

    :wink:
  • cantersaddick
    cantersaddick Posts: 16,944
    So lets see about Liam Bridcutt.
    Is age 30, late for most midfielders. He has 1 goal in 178 matches in The Championship over his whole career. He was signed by Sunderland for £4.2M in 2014 and has since been sold for less than that twice by clubs wanting to offload him and now this will be offload number three. He is not good enough for another team in our own division and after looking at the Forest Forum page, no one there will miss him.
    I call that a "pass."

    Not fair to judge him on goals, the bloke is a defensive midfielder. And there will be numerous players deemed not good enough for our Championship rivals who could do a job for us. 
    Perhaps. But I trust their own fans, who have seen him in person for some time. Not one person on their board want him back. That alone is good enough for me. His value in Transfermarkt has dropped 4 straight years, a bad sign, And paying a transfer fee to get a midfielder who will be 31 this season is very unlikely to be a wise investment, in my opinion.
    I know nowt about him but no one on the Leicester boards had a decent thing to say about Yann when he joined us and he was exceptional and should undoubtedly have played PL football for longer than he did IMO.
    So the old... "there is one exception way over here, way back when, that disproves the multitude of studies that say the contrary" theory? ;)

    It's the same thing I was mentioning in another thread... people always find one or two outliers and then project that fallacy out that the basic argument is flawed. Mountains of studies show players peak by age 25-27 and generally start declining afterwards. One study even shows the peak is 23-25. (Defenders peak between 25-29, across studies, as do keepers.) By age 30 you are taking a real big risk, not just with quality but with injuries too. I do not wish to hope we are the outlier-geniuses that find the diamond in the rough that disproves the aggregate of facts and odds.

    We are a small club and to fight the very established odds (to me) is a big mistake. We need to go with the odds and make every player count, not hope some 30-31 year old being told he can leave another club in our division because he is not good enough is somehow going to morph from a frog to a swan under Lee's care. For a transfer fee no less. At least that is how I see it. If anyone wants links to data and studies on when football players peak, PM me. I have studies by universities, economists and FIFA, itself, for those interested.
    Napa does love his moneyball shite
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  • NapaAddick
    NapaAddick Posts: 4,657
    So lets see about Liam Bridcutt.
    Is age 30, late for most midfielders. He has 1 goal in 178 matches in The Championship over his whole career. He was signed by Sunderland for £4.2M in 2014 and has since been sold for less than that twice by clubs wanting to offload him and now this will be offload number three. He is not good enough for another team in our own division and after looking at the Forest Forum page, no one there will miss him.
    I call that a "pass."

    Not fair to judge him on goals, the bloke is a defensive midfielder. And there will be numerous players deemed not good enough for our Championship rivals who could do a job for us. 
    Perhaps. But I trust their own fans, who have seen him in person for some time. Not one person on their board want him back. That alone is good enough for me. His value in Transfermarkt has dropped 4 straight years, a bad sign, And paying a transfer fee to get a midfielder who will be 31 this season is very unlikely to be a wise investment, in my opinion.
    I know nowt about him but no one on the Leicester boards had a decent thing to say about Yann when he joined us and he was exceptional and should undoubtedly have played PL football for longer than he did IMO.
    So the old... "there is one exception way over here, way back when, that disproves the multitude of studies that say the contrary" theory? ;)

    It's the same thing I was mentioning in another thread... people always find one or two outliers and then project that fallacy out that the basic argument is flawed. Mountains of studies show players peak by age 25-27 and generally start declining afterwards. One study even shows the peak is 23-25. (Defenders peak between 25-29, across studies, as do keepers.) By age 30 you are taking a real big risk, not just with quality but with injuries too. I do not wish to hope we are the outlier-geniuses that find the diamond in the rough that disproves the aggregate of facts and odds.

    We are a small club and to fight the very established odds (to me) is a big mistake. We need to go with the odds and make every player count, not hope some 30-31 year old being told he can leave another club in our division because he is not good enough is somehow going to morph from a frog to a swan under Lee's care. For a transfer fee no less. At least that is how I see it. If anyone wants links to data and studies on when football players peak, PM me. I have studies by universities, economists and FIFA, itself, for those interested.
    Napa does love his moneyball shite
    Going with the odds works more than going against them. Fact. That's why it's called odds. :#
  • Richard J
    Richard J Posts: 8,033
    So lets see about Liam Bridcutt.
    Is age 30, late for most midfielders. He has 1 goal in 178 matches in The Championship over his whole career. He was signed by Sunderland for £4.2M in 2014 and has since been sold for less than that twice by clubs wanting to offload him and now this will be offload number three. He is not good enough for another team in our own division and after looking at the Forest Forum page, no one there will miss him.
    I call that a "pass."

    Not fair to judge him on goals, the bloke is a defensive midfielder. And there will be numerous players deemed not good enough for our Championship rivals who could do a job for us. 
    Perhaps. But I trust their own fans, who have seen him in person for some time. Not one person on their board want him back. That alone is good enough for me. His value in Transfermarkt has dropped 4 straight years, a bad sign, And paying a transfer fee to get a midfielder who will be 31 this season is very unlikely to be a wise investment, in my opinion.
    I know nowt about him but no one on the Leicester boards had a decent thing to say about Yann when he joined us and he was exceptional and should undoubtedly have played PL football for longer than he did IMO.
    So the old... "there is one exception way over here, way back when, that disproves the multitude of studies that say the contrary" theory? ;)

    It's the same thing I was mentioning in another thread... people always find one or two outliers and then project that fallacy out that the basic argument is flawed. Mountains of studies show players peak by age 25-27 and generally start declining afterwards. One study even shows the peak is 23-25. (Defenders peak between 25-29, across studies, as do keepers.) By age 30 you are taking a real big risk, not just with quality but with injuries too. I do not wish to hope we are the outlier-geniuses that find the diamond in the rough that disproves the aggregate of facts and odds.

    We are a small club and to fight the very established odds (to me) is a big mistake. We need to go with the odds and make every player count, not hope some 30-31 year old being told he can leave another club in our division because he is not good enough is somehow going to morph from a frog to a swan under Lee's care. For a transfer fee no less. At least that is how I see it. If anyone wants links to data and studies on when football players peak, PM me. I have studies by universities, economists and FIFA, itself, for those interested.
    Napa does love his moneyball shite
    Isn't that the method Brentford have used? 

    I like Napa's insights. Like mine they will sometimes be wrong. I tend to like people like Bridcutt. 
  • Henry Irving
    Henry Irving Posts: 85,230
    So lets see about Liam Bridcutt.
    Is age 30, late for most midfielders. He has 1 goal in 178 matches in The Championship over his whole career. He was signed by Sunderland for £4.2M in 2014 and has since been sold for less than that twice by clubs wanting to offload him and now this will be offload number three. He is not good enough for another team in our own division and after looking at the Forest Forum page, no one there will miss him.
    I call that a "pass."

    Not fair to judge him on goals, the bloke is a defensive midfielder. And there will be numerous players deemed not good enough for our Championship rivals who could do a job for us. 
    Perhaps. But I trust their own fans, who have seen him in person for some time. Not one person on their board want him back. That alone is good enough for me. His value in Transfermarkt has dropped 4 straight years, a bad sign, And paying a transfer fee to get a midfielder who will be 31 this season is very unlikely to be a wise investment, in my opinion.
    I know nowt about him but no one on the Leicester boards had a decent thing to say about Yann when he joined us and he was exceptional and should undoubtedly have played PL football for longer than he did IMO.
    So the old... "there is one exception way over here, way back when, that disproves the multitude of studies that say the contrary" theory? ;)

    It's the same thing I was mentioning in another thread... people always find one or two outliers and then project that fallacy out that the basic argument is flawed. Mountains of studies show players peak by age 25-27 and generally start declining afterwards. One study even shows the peak is 23-25. (Defenders peak between 25-29, across studies, as do keepers.) By age 30 you are taking a real big risk, not just with quality but with injuries too. I do not wish to hope we are the outlier-geniuses that find the diamond in the rough that disproves the aggregate of facts and odds.

    We are a small club and to fight the very established odds (to me) is a big mistake. We need to go with the odds and make every player count, not hope some 30-31 year old being told he can leave another club in our division because he is not good enough is somehow going to morph from a frog to a swan under Lee's care. For a transfer fee no less. At least that is how I see it. If anyone wants links to data and studies on when football players peak, PM me. I have studies by universities, economists and FIFA, itself, for those interested.
    Napa does love his moneyball shite
    Going with the odds works more than going against them. Fact. That's why it's called odds. :#
    Only if you're the bookie.

    Yet again you confuse "odds" with professional knowledge and judgement.

    An algorithm is not a substitute for knowing what you are doing.

    Driesen the stat man v Gallen the football man.  I know who my money's on.
  • East_Stand_Loopy
    East_Stand_Loopy Posts: 2,205
    edited July 2019
    So lets see about Liam Bridcutt.
    Is age 30, late for most midfielders. He has 1 goal in 178 matches in The Championship over his whole career. He was signed by Sunderland for £4.2M in 2014 and has since been sold for less than that twice by clubs wanting to offload him and now this will be offload number three. He is not good enough for another team in our own division and after looking at the Forest Forum page, no one there will miss him.
    I call that a "pass."

    Not fair to judge him on goals, the bloke is a defensive midfielder. And there will be numerous players deemed not good enough for our Championship rivals who could do a job for us. 
    Perhaps. But I trust their own fans, who have seen him in person for some time. Not one person on their board want him back. That alone is good enough for me. His value in Transfermarkt has dropped 4 straight years, a bad sign, And paying a transfer fee to get a midfielder who will be 31 this season is very unlikely to be a wise investment, in my opinion.
    I know nowt about him but no one on the Leicester boards had a decent thing to say about Yann when he joined us and he was exceptional and should undoubtedly have played PL football for longer than he did IMO.
    So the old... "there is one exception way over here, way back when, that disproves the multitude of studies that say the contrary" theory? ;)

    It's the same thing I was mentioning in another thread... people always find one or two outliers and then project that fallacy out that the basic argument is flawed. Mountains of studies show players peak by age 25-27 and generally start declining afterwards. One study even shows the peak is 23-25. (Defenders peak between 25-29, across studies, as do keepers.) By age 30 you are taking a real big risk, not just with quality but with injuries too. I do not wish to hope we are the outlier-geniuses that find the diamond in the rough that disproves the aggregate of facts and odds.

    We are a small club and to fight the very established odds (to me) is a big mistake. We need to go with the odds and make every player count, not hope some 30-31 year old being told he can leave another club in our division because he is not good enough is somehow going to morph from a frog to a swan under Lee's care. For a transfer fee no less. At least that is how I see it. If anyone wants links to data and studies on when football players peak, PM me. I have studies by universities, economists and FIFA, itself, for those interested.
    Napa does love his moneyball shite
    Going with the odds works more than going against them. Fact. That's why it's called odds. :#
    Only if you're the bookie.

    Yet again you confuse "odds" with professional knowledge and judgement.

    An algorithm is not a substitute for knowing what you are doing.

    Driesen the stat man v Gallen the football man.  I know who my money's on.
    Even then, sometimes it doesn't work.

    Sometimes, the relationship between a player and a club is greater than the sum of its parts.

    Sometimes, a player looks perfect for a club, and for some undefinable reason, it isn't.

    More of an art, than a science...
  • Henry Irving
    Henry Irving Posts: 85,230
    Calm down.

    You referenced transfer market FFS.   It is not valid.

    You law of large numbers is nonsense in this context because you haven't consulted large numbers, you had a quick look at a football forum and because not all opinions are equally valid.

    If I need an operation I can consult 1000 people on Charlton Life or one surgeon. Who's opinion is more valid?

    You dismissed Yann as an outlier then quote Marshall. 

    Yann was a risk, Powell knew that but took the risk against all the many Leicester fans views. Powell using human judgement, not stats.

    So not only contradicting your own nonsense theory but proving exactly how inexact selecting players is. Marshall, a Robinson signing, had been excellent the previous season but he got injured but also had played well in 442 at Bradford but struggled in a 4231.

    As said it is an art not a science.




  • So lets see about Liam Bridcutt.
    Is age 30, late for most midfielders. He has 1 goal in 178 matches in The Championship over his whole career. He was signed by Sunderland for £4.2M in 2014 and has since been sold for less than that twice by clubs wanting to offload him and now this will be offload number three. He is not good enough for another team in our own division and after looking at the Forest Forum page, no one there will miss him.
    I call that a "pass."

    Not fair to judge him on goals, the bloke is a defensive midfielder. And there will be numerous players deemed not good enough for our Championship rivals who could do a job for us. 
    Perhaps. But I trust their own fans, who have seen him in person for some time. Not one person on their board want him back. That alone is good enough for me. His value in Transfermarkt has dropped 4 straight years, a bad sign, And paying a transfer fee to get a midfielder who will be 31 this season is very unlikely to be a wise investment, in my opinion.
    I know nowt about him but no one on the Leicester boards had a decent thing to say about Yann when he joined us and he was exceptional and should undoubtedly have played PL football for longer than he did IMO.
    So the old... "there is one exception way over here, way back when, that disproves the multitude of studies that say the contrary" theory? ;)

    It's the same thing I was mentioning in another thread... people always find one or two outliers and then project that fallacy out that the basic argument is flawed. Mountains of studies show players peak by age 25-27 and generally start declining afterwards. One study even shows the peak is 23-25. (Defenders peak between 25-29, across studies, as do keepers.) By age 30 you are taking a real big risk, not just with quality but with injuries too. I do not wish to hope we are the outlier-geniuses that find the diamond in the rough that disproves the aggregate of facts and odds.

    We are a small club and to fight the very established odds (to me) is a big mistake. We need to go with the odds and make every player count, not hope some 30-31 year old being told he can leave another club in our division because he is not good enough is somehow going to morph from a frog to a swan under Lee's care. For a transfer fee no less. At least that is how I see it. If anyone wants links to data and studies on when football players peak, PM me. I have studies by universities, economists and FIFA, itself, for those interested.
    Napa does love his moneyball shite
    Going with the odds works more than going against them. Fact. That's why it's called odds. :#
    It’s called ‘odds’ because the numbers being offered are different eg 3 to 1, 5 to 2 etc. When the numbers match ie 1 to 1, it’s called ‘evens’. Rocket science I know but there you go.
  • NA=TD FACT
  • Swisdom
    Swisdom Posts: 14,977
    I’m confused

    is Napa actually Driessen? Or Jesus Christ
  • Scoham
    Scoham Posts: 37,382
    Players peak in their mid to late 20s. Those players also tend to be expensive.

    We have a League 1 budget. Most of our signings will be young players on the up and older players past their peak.

    We need the right balance, hence Pearce’s extended contract. He’ll be 32 during the season. Like last season he might not be a regular, but with a lot of young players his character, experience and leadership is even more important to have in the squad. Same with Pratley, Solly and Taylor.

    Bowyer talked about adding a few more experienced players, clearly he doesn’t think the four above is enough. I’m sure out of the 6/7 Bowyer wants at least a couple will be older players, but Bowyer and Gallen will use their judgement of which stats will be part of to decide who to target.
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  • Just caught up  on 10 pages of this thread & the only rumour I've seen is that Napa coild be Driessen

    I'll never learn! 
  • roseandcrown
    roseandcrown Posts: 7,587
    Swisdom said:
    I’m confused

    is Napa actually Driessen? Or Jesus Christ
    Diesen recommend Jesus as data from napa suggested he was good on crosses 
  • MarcusH26
    MarcusH26 Posts: 8,042
    Think wages would be a problem with Bridcutt , was tidy enough a few years back for Brighton. 
  • Macronate
    Macronate Posts: 12,897
    Swisdom said:
    I’m confused

    is Napa actually Driessen? Or Jesus Christ
    Diesen recommend Jesus as data from napa suggested he was good on crosses 

  • roseandcrown
    roseandcrown Posts: 7,587
    So lets see about Liam Bridcutt.
    Is age 30, late for most midfielders. He has 1 goal in 178 matches in The Championship over his whole career. He was signed by Sunderland for £4.2M in 2014 and has since been sold for less than that twice by clubs wanting to offload him and now this will be offload number three. He is not good enough for another team in our own division and after looking at the Forest Forum page, no one there will miss him.
    I call that a "pass."

    Look at this way though napa. We have just extended Pearce’s contract and most are very happy with that.

    Based on your views/stats on bridcutt it would suggest Pearce would not be a good signing. Stats I assume would suggest his value going down, not played as many games etc but as we know from him being at Charlton he is a very good player and just as important character and experienced professional. 

    Bridcutt for me in this squad would be a improvement on pratley (due to age) and provide experience etc. 
  • BR7_addick
    BR7_addick Posts: 10,212
    Apologies if mentioned already but isn’t Jamie Ward available on a free?  Signed a four year deal with forest summer of 2015?  Be worth a punt.
  • DamoNorthStand
    DamoNorthStand Posts: 10,938
    Apologies if mentioned already but isn’t Jamie Ward available on a free?  Signed a four year deal with forest summer of 2015?  Be worth a punt.
    Think we need to look higher than that now we are in the champ - he’s 33 and on loan wasn’t exactly a star..... just alright.

    i say we need to look higher - be interested to see whether that’s even possible on our budget
  • BR7_addick
    BR7_addick Posts: 10,212
    Apologies if mentioned already but isn’t Jamie Ward available on a free?  Signed a four year deal with forest summer of 2015?  Be worth a punt.
    Think we need to look higher than that now we are in the champ - he’s 33 and on loan wasn’t exactly a star..... just alright.

    i say we need to look higher - be interested to see whether that’s even possible on our budget
    Understood but didn’t bowyer mentioned experiences championship players, and be good back up to Williams if he signs.
  • cantersaddick
    cantersaddick Posts: 16,944
    edited July 2019
    Napa mate. You've more than once referenced economists and papers by economists.

    I am a professional economist I work in government here. I use analysis to provide the evidence on which policy decisions are based. I have also produced more than 50 official stats releases in the last 4 years. 

    If anyone is an advocate of the use of data and evidence in sport it's me. I read a number of analysis based football and cricket blogs. The dream is that one day once I've set myself up to move into working in sports analysis - more likely cricket than football. 

    There is a difference between me - someone who does this for a living, has a degree and professional qualifications in this stuff. And you someone who (at least this is how it comes across) has read a book a bit of stuff on the internet about it. The difference is that I know that beneath every stat is a number of assumptions all of which will have a number of caveats. Not understanding these and the linitations they cause for the results is serious and the cause of a number of massive public failures in the last few years.

    Any econometric model will have some serious caveats particularly when applied to something like football. 

    Money ball and the like sound great when you first hear it but when taken alone rarely actually works. Elements of it can be used in conjunction with other traditional parts of football (scouting, the human side etc.) But you need much more than that. 

    People often quote Southampton and the work they did under Les Reed as proof it works similarly Brentford at the moment. But that is completely missing the point. The stats and analysis were simply one point of a massive wider piece of work. It's the one that gets talked about most but it was actually only a small part. 

    The point is when used right analysis is invaluable but when too much weight on it can become useless.

    Your assertion that we shouldn't sign anyone over the age of 29 as they would have no resale value is laughable. Yes we would want players with resale value but players also provide value in other ways. Such as what they bring on the pitch (you know the actual football) and what they bring off the pitch in terms of passing on experience and the atmosphere around the camp. 

    We have had numerous players in the last few years who have come in on 1 or 2 year deals towards the end of their career and been hugely valuable on this sense. Look at Pratley last season or before him Hughes or even Euell when he returned. Ricardo fuller came in and did a job for a year and was key in us staying out the relegation battle that season. Like in every workplace you need a mix of ages and experiences to get the best out of a squad as a whole.

    The situation we are in a few players with experience who can come in on short term deals do a job for us and guide the younger players through tougher situations may well be enough to keep us up.
  • Henry Irving
    Henry Irving Posts: 85,230
    Swisdom said:
    I’m confused

    is Napa actually Driessen? Or Jesus Christ
    Diesen recommend Jesus as data from napa suggested he was good on crosses 
    As a young man who was strong on assists.   I remember Judy Sill saying he was a crossmaker