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Summer 2019 Transfer Rumours (ed. Pg 296 - Start of Deadline Day)
Comments
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I know nowt about him but no one on the Leicester boards had a decent thing to say about Yann when he joined us and he was exceptional and should undoubtedly have played PL football for longer than he did IMO.NapaAddick said:
Perhaps. But I trust their own fans, who have seen him in person for some time. Not one person on their board want him back. That alone is good enough for me. His value in Transfermarkt has dropped 4 straight years, a bad sign, And paying a transfer fee to get a midfielder who will be 31 this season is very unlikely to be a wise investment, in my opinion.cafcfan1990 said:
Not fair to judge him on goals, the bloke is a defensive midfielder. And there will be numerous players deemed not good enough for our Championship rivals who could do a job for us.NapaAddick said:So lets see about Liam Bridcutt.Is age 30, late for most midfielders. He has 1 goal in 178 matches in The Championship over his whole career. He was signed by Sunderland for £4.2M in 2014 and has since been sold for less than that twice by clubs wanting to offload him and now this will be offload number three. He is not good enough for another team in our own division and after looking at the Forest Forum page, no one there will miss him.I call that a "pass."1 -
Zak Ansah signs for my local team: http://www.hernebayfootballclub.co.uk/news/exciting-news-2443196.html5
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Athletico Charlton said:
I know nowt about him but no one on the Leicester boards had a decent thing to say about Yann when he joined us and he was exceptional and should undoubtedly have played PL football for longer than he did IMO.NapaAddick said:
Perhaps. But I trust their own fans, who have seen him in person for some time. Not one person on their board want him back. That alone is good enough for me. His value in Transfermarkt has dropped 4 straight years, a bad sign, And paying a transfer fee to get a midfielder who will be 31 this season is very unlikely to be a wise investment, in my opinion.cafcfan1990 said:
Not fair to judge him on goals, the bloke is a defensive midfielder. And there will be numerous players deemed not good enough for our Championship rivals who could do a job for us.NapaAddick said:So lets see about Liam Bridcutt.Is age 30, late for most midfielders. He has 1 goal in 178 matches in The Championship over his whole career. He was signed by Sunderland for £4.2M in 2014 and has since been sold for less than that twice by clubs wanting to offload him and now this will be offload number three. He is not good enough for another team in our own division and after looking at the Forest Forum page, no one there will miss him.I call that a "pass."So the old... "there is one exception way over here, way back when, that disproves the multitude of studies that say the contrary" theory?
It's the same thing I was mentioning in another thread... people always find one or two outliers and then project that fallacy out that the basic argument is flawed. Mountains of studies show players peak by age 25-27 and generally start declining afterwards. One study even shows the peak is 23-25. (Defenders peak between 25-29, across studies, as do keepers.) By age 30 you are taking a real big risk, not just with quality but with injuries too. I do not wish to hope we are the outlier-geniuses that find the diamond in the rough that disproves the aggregate of facts and odds.We are a small club and to fight the very established odds (to me) is a big mistake. We need to go with the odds and make every player count, not hope some 30-31 year old being told he can leave another club in our division because he is not good enough is somehow going to morph from a frog to a swan under Lee's care. For a transfer fee no less. At least that is how I see it. If anyone wants links to data and studies on when football players peak, PM me. I have studies by universities, economists and FIFA, itself, for those interested.3 -
Yeah this bothers me too. Lot of comments about how any sell in clause or increase in value would have gone to Roland’s back pocket.Redhenry said:What would the debt be if we had got the true value for those players?
I reckon he’s an idiot and wants to try and recover close to what he has laid out, even though much of what he has laid out was due to his own poor decisions or those of his supervised staff.
the lower the amount he feels he has lost, the lower the asking price.
now I know this isn’t normally the way acquisitions work. You pay as acquirer what you think the business is worth and, if there is some untapped value there maybe a bit more to meet the seller’s needs and to close the deal.
what you never do is pay well over1 -
Not a rumour but a player I'd like to see is Tom Adeyemi. Mr sick note but signed for big clubs and only 27. Unattached.0
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Watched him play a couple of times last season for Hythe, he was far too good for the Bostick South-Eastcafc-west said:Zak Ansah signs for my local team: http://www.hernebayfootballclub.co.uk/news/exciting-news-2443196.html0 -
We do have a sell on clause for Lookman, correct? If we do and he pockets it, Rat might actually break-even in 2019-20. Which worries me because it means he can keep holding out like a jerk. In his mind he is playing with house money and without a loss facing him, he might well wait til season's end and see if he can lure new buyers at a higher price. Of course that is dumb but this is Roland we are talking about.£10M operating loss in 2018-19 (based on estimates)+£6M in "solidarity payments" in The Championship (Airman)+£1M in additional matchday due to higher ST sales+£3M in sell on fee for Lookman?-----£0 Loss in 2019-2020.1
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Anyone recommend a nice B & B for Lord & Lady Irving's next seaside break ?cafc-west said:Zak Ansah signs for my local team: http://www.hernebayfootballclub.co.uk/news/exciting-news-2443196.html 6 -
Napa does love his moneyball shiteNapaAddick said:Athletico Charlton said:
I know nowt about him but no one on the Leicester boards had a decent thing to say about Yann when he joined us and he was exceptional and should undoubtedly have played PL football for longer than he did IMO.NapaAddick said:
Perhaps. But I trust their own fans, who have seen him in person for some time. Not one person on their board want him back. That alone is good enough for me. His value in Transfermarkt has dropped 4 straight years, a bad sign, And paying a transfer fee to get a midfielder who will be 31 this season is very unlikely to be a wise investment, in my opinion.cafcfan1990 said:
Not fair to judge him on goals, the bloke is a defensive midfielder. And there will be numerous players deemed not good enough for our Championship rivals who could do a job for us.NapaAddick said:So lets see about Liam Bridcutt.Is age 30, late for most midfielders. He has 1 goal in 178 matches in The Championship over his whole career. He was signed by Sunderland for £4.2M in 2014 and has since been sold for less than that twice by clubs wanting to offload him and now this will be offload number three. He is not good enough for another team in our own division and after looking at the Forest Forum page, no one there will miss him.I call that a "pass."So the old... "there is one exception way over here, way back when, that disproves the multitude of studies that say the contrary" theory?It's the same thing I was mentioning in another thread... people always find one or two outliers and then project that fallacy out that the basic argument is flawed. Mountains of studies show players peak by age 25-27 and generally start declining afterwards. One study even shows the peak is 23-25. (Defenders peak between 25-29, across studies, as do keepers.) By age 30 you are taking a real big risk, not just with quality but with injuries too. I do not wish to hope we are the outlier-geniuses that find the diamond in the rough that disproves the aggregate of facts and odds.We are a small club and to fight the very established odds (to me) is a big mistake. We need to go with the odds and make every player count, not hope some 30-31 year old being told he can leave another club in our division because he is not good enough is somehow going to morph from a frog to a swan under Lee's care. For a transfer fee no less. At least that is how I see it. If anyone wants links to data and studies on when football players peak, PM me. I have studies by universities, economists and FIFA, itself, for those interested.7 -
Problem is Napa, you're thousands of miles away looking at Transfermarket (which is just made up, it has no validity or substance) and reading a fans forum (subjective opinion from non-experts) and claiming this outweighs the opinions of people who've actually seen him play.
If your methods had any validity, which they don't, Thomas Driesen would be hailed as a football genius by everyone.
He isn't because he just relies on stats, has never played or coached the game at any serious level and knows nothing about a players character, fitness or style.
For example Bridcut is a defensive midfielder, he's not in the team to score goals, hence he's only scored one.
He WAS a very good player a few years back. I've no idea if he still is.
Thankfully Charlton don't have to rely on my limited, out if date, unprofessional judgement, or yours.
We have Steve Gallen, who does not use Transfermarket or Forest Life, but actually goes to watch players play.
Bizarre that he doesn't just use stats and algorithms, I know, but somehow it works.22 - Sponsored links:
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Going with the odds works more than going against them. Fact. That's why it's called odds.cantersaddick said:
Napa does love his moneyball shiteNapaAddick said:Athletico Charlton said:
I know nowt about him but no one on the Leicester boards had a decent thing to say about Yann when he joined us and he was exceptional and should undoubtedly have played PL football for longer than he did IMO.NapaAddick said:
Perhaps. But I trust their own fans, who have seen him in person for some time. Not one person on their board want him back. That alone is good enough for me. His value in Transfermarkt has dropped 4 straight years, a bad sign, And paying a transfer fee to get a midfielder who will be 31 this season is very unlikely to be a wise investment, in my opinion.cafcfan1990 said:
Not fair to judge him on goals, the bloke is a defensive midfielder. And there will be numerous players deemed not good enough for our Championship rivals who could do a job for us.NapaAddick said:So lets see about Liam Bridcutt.Is age 30, late for most midfielders. He has 1 goal in 178 matches in The Championship over his whole career. He was signed by Sunderland for £4.2M in 2014 and has since been sold for less than that twice by clubs wanting to offload him and now this will be offload number three. He is not good enough for another team in our own division and after looking at the Forest Forum page, no one there will miss him.I call that a "pass."So the old... "there is one exception way over here, way back when, that disproves the multitude of studies that say the contrary" theory?It's the same thing I was mentioning in another thread... people always find one or two outliers and then project that fallacy out that the basic argument is flawed. Mountains of studies show players peak by age 25-27 and generally start declining afterwards. One study even shows the peak is 23-25. (Defenders peak between 25-29, across studies, as do keepers.) By age 30 you are taking a real big risk, not just with quality but with injuries too. I do not wish to hope we are the outlier-geniuses that find the diamond in the rough that disproves the aggregate of facts and odds.We are a small club and to fight the very established odds (to me) is a big mistake. We need to go with the odds and make every player count, not hope some 30-31 year old being told he can leave another club in our division because he is not good enough is somehow going to morph from a frog to a swan under Lee's care. For a transfer fee no less. At least that is how I see it. If anyone wants links to data and studies on when football players peak, PM me. I have studies by universities, economists and FIFA, itself, for those interested.
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Isn't that the method Brentford have used?cantersaddick said:
Napa does love his moneyball shiteNapaAddick said:Athletico Charlton said:
I know nowt about him but no one on the Leicester boards had a decent thing to say about Yann when he joined us and he was exceptional and should undoubtedly have played PL football for longer than he did IMO.NapaAddick said:
Perhaps. But I trust their own fans, who have seen him in person for some time. Not one person on their board want him back. That alone is good enough for me. His value in Transfermarkt has dropped 4 straight years, a bad sign, And paying a transfer fee to get a midfielder who will be 31 this season is very unlikely to be a wise investment, in my opinion.cafcfan1990 said:
Not fair to judge him on goals, the bloke is a defensive midfielder. And there will be numerous players deemed not good enough for our Championship rivals who could do a job for us.NapaAddick said:So lets see about Liam Bridcutt.Is age 30, late for most midfielders. He has 1 goal in 178 matches in The Championship over his whole career. He was signed by Sunderland for £4.2M in 2014 and has since been sold for less than that twice by clubs wanting to offload him and now this will be offload number three. He is not good enough for another team in our own division and after looking at the Forest Forum page, no one there will miss him.I call that a "pass."So the old... "there is one exception way over here, way back when, that disproves the multitude of studies that say the contrary" theory?It's the same thing I was mentioning in another thread... people always find one or two outliers and then project that fallacy out that the basic argument is flawed. Mountains of studies show players peak by age 25-27 and generally start declining afterwards. One study even shows the peak is 23-25. (Defenders peak between 25-29, across studies, as do keepers.) By age 30 you are taking a real big risk, not just with quality but with injuries too. I do not wish to hope we are the outlier-geniuses that find the diamond in the rough that disproves the aggregate of facts and odds.We are a small club and to fight the very established odds (to me) is a big mistake. We need to go with the odds and make every player count, not hope some 30-31 year old being told he can leave another club in our division because he is not good enough is somehow going to morph from a frog to a swan under Lee's care. For a transfer fee no less. At least that is how I see it. If anyone wants links to data and studies on when football players peak, PM me. I have studies by universities, economists and FIFA, itself, for those interested.
I like Napa's insights. Like mine they will sometimes be wrong. I tend to like people like Bridcutt.2 -
Only if you're the bookie.NapaAddick said:
Going with the odds works more than going against them. Fact. That's why it's called odds.cantersaddick said:
Napa does love his moneyball shiteNapaAddick said:Athletico Charlton said:
I know nowt about him but no one on the Leicester boards had a decent thing to say about Yann when he joined us and he was exceptional and should undoubtedly have played PL football for longer than he did IMO.NapaAddick said:
Perhaps. But I trust their own fans, who have seen him in person for some time. Not one person on their board want him back. That alone is good enough for me. His value in Transfermarkt has dropped 4 straight years, a bad sign, And paying a transfer fee to get a midfielder who will be 31 this season is very unlikely to be a wise investment, in my opinion.cafcfan1990 said:
Not fair to judge him on goals, the bloke is a defensive midfielder. And there will be numerous players deemed not good enough for our Championship rivals who could do a job for us.NapaAddick said:So lets see about Liam Bridcutt.Is age 30, late for most midfielders. He has 1 goal in 178 matches in The Championship over his whole career. He was signed by Sunderland for £4.2M in 2014 and has since been sold for less than that twice by clubs wanting to offload him and now this will be offload number three. He is not good enough for another team in our own division and after looking at the Forest Forum page, no one there will miss him.I call that a "pass."So the old... "there is one exception way over here, way back when, that disproves the multitude of studies that say the contrary" theory?It's the same thing I was mentioning in another thread... people always find one or two outliers and then project that fallacy out that the basic argument is flawed. Mountains of studies show players peak by age 25-27 and generally start declining afterwards. One study even shows the peak is 23-25. (Defenders peak between 25-29, across studies, as do keepers.) By age 30 you are taking a real big risk, not just with quality but with injuries too. I do not wish to hope we are the outlier-geniuses that find the diamond in the rough that disproves the aggregate of facts and odds.We are a small club and to fight the very established odds (to me) is a big mistake. We need to go with the odds and make every player count, not hope some 30-31 year old being told he can leave another club in our division because he is not good enough is somehow going to morph from a frog to a swan under Lee's care. For a transfer fee no less. At least that is how I see it. If anyone wants links to data and studies on when football players peak, PM me. I have studies by universities, economists and FIFA, itself, for those interested.
Yet again you confuse "odds" with professional knowledge and judgement.
An algorithm is not a substitute for knowing what you are doing.
Driesen the stat man v Gallen the football man. I know who my money's on.6 -
Even then, sometimes it doesn't work.Henry Irving said:
Only if you're the bookie.NapaAddick said:
Going with the odds works more than going against them. Fact. That's why it's called odds.cantersaddick said:
Napa does love his moneyball shiteNapaAddick said:Athletico Charlton said:
I know nowt about him but no one on the Leicester boards had a decent thing to say about Yann when he joined us and he was exceptional and should undoubtedly have played PL football for longer than he did IMO.NapaAddick said:
Perhaps. But I trust their own fans, who have seen him in person for some time. Not one person on their board want him back. That alone is good enough for me. His value in Transfermarkt has dropped 4 straight years, a bad sign, And paying a transfer fee to get a midfielder who will be 31 this season is very unlikely to be a wise investment, in my opinion.cafcfan1990 said:
Not fair to judge him on goals, the bloke is a defensive midfielder. And there will be numerous players deemed not good enough for our Championship rivals who could do a job for us.NapaAddick said:So lets see about Liam Bridcutt.Is age 30, late for most midfielders. He has 1 goal in 178 matches in The Championship over his whole career. He was signed by Sunderland for £4.2M in 2014 and has since been sold for less than that twice by clubs wanting to offload him and now this will be offload number three. He is not good enough for another team in our own division and after looking at the Forest Forum page, no one there will miss him.I call that a "pass."So the old... "there is one exception way over here, way back when, that disproves the multitude of studies that say the contrary" theory?It's the same thing I was mentioning in another thread... people always find one or two outliers and then project that fallacy out that the basic argument is flawed. Mountains of studies show players peak by age 25-27 and generally start declining afterwards. One study even shows the peak is 23-25. (Defenders peak between 25-29, across studies, as do keepers.) By age 30 you are taking a real big risk, not just with quality but with injuries too. I do not wish to hope we are the outlier-geniuses that find the diamond in the rough that disproves the aggregate of facts and odds.We are a small club and to fight the very established odds (to me) is a big mistake. We need to go with the odds and make every player count, not hope some 30-31 year old being told he can leave another club in our division because he is not good enough is somehow going to morph from a frog to a swan under Lee's care. For a transfer fee no less. At least that is how I see it. If anyone wants links to data and studies on when football players peak, PM me. I have studies by universities, economists and FIFA, itself, for those interested.
Yet again you confuse "odds" with professional knowledge and judgement.
An algorithm is not a substitute for knowing what you are doing.
Driesen the stat man v Gallen the football man. I know who my money's on.
Sometimes, the relationship between a player and a club is greater than the sum of its parts.
Sometimes, a player looks perfect for a club, and for some undefinable reason, it isn't.
More of an art, than a science...2 -
Henry Irving said:Problem is Napa, you're thousands of miles away looking at Transfermarket (which is just made up, it has no validity or substance) and reading a fans forum (subjective opinion from non-experts) and claiming this outweighs the opinions of people who've actually seen him play.
If your methods had any validity, which they don't, Thomas Driesen would be hailed as a football genius by everyone.
He isn't because he just relies on stats, has never played or coached the game at any serious level and knows nothing about a players character, fitness or style.
For example Bridcut is a defensive midfielder, he's not in the team to score goals, hence he's only scored one.
He WAS a very good player a few years back. I've no idea if he still is.
Thankfully Charlton don't have to rely on my limited, out if date, unprofessional judgement, or yours.
We have Steve Gallen, who does not use Transfermarket or Forest Life, but actually goes to watch players play.
Bizarre that he doesn't just use stats and algorithms, I know, but somehow it works.You have so many logical fallacies in your post it is hard to know where to start.Did I ever say anyone should "just rely on stats"? No. I never mentioned the word algorithm once, so please stop putting words in my mouth.. (Straw Man)Are you really saying that Driessen is the only person who uses data and thus since he is wrong, it must not work? Ever heard of Jean-Michel Aulas? (Either/or Fallacy.) Les Reed took Southampton a lot further after leaving CAFC using common sense data on player age and development than anyone here EVER has.Steve Gallen is good and I am glad we got him back, but he also brought on Mark Marshall, another older player I railed against the day it happened for the same reason I would against Liam. How did that work out? How about Ben Reeves, who we just let walk? Jo Dodoo? How did 30-year old Billy Clarke work out? Those are all just from Gallen's first window! Gallen is good but Jesus Christ, he does not walk on water. (hasty generalization fallacy on your part.) If he was a transfer god he would be working for a team a lot higher up the food chain than Charlton, just like our best players go out the door. Why the fuck are we talking about Gallen anyway? I was opposed to another poster's view of Liam, not Steve. Steve ain't paying a fee for him, it's a moot point.And it is FAR more reasonable to rely on the fan base of the player who know Liam more than just one person here on this board saying they would like him when that one person has not seen him play in years, either. This is called the "law of large numbers" which has been considered a valid statistical approach for success since the 1700s. A group of people who can see (any X) in question are more likely to be right than any one person or smaller group of people. This is not even considered up for debate. Except in the world of football, LOL.Facts are... facts. Saying players peak at age 25-27 is not opinion. Nor is it Moneyball. It is a simple fact. FACT. Thus, players drop in value and quality past that age, play less minutes, score less goals, reduce transfer value, get injured more, etc. FACT. And, thus, the odds of making it work... decline. FACT. You can play against the odds, but more often than not you will get burned. The same non-logic is why people think they can beat the house in gambling. Vegas was not built on winners but people keep gambling anyway.Your claim this approach have "no validity" is ignorant and very contrary to loads of data (and success) to the contrary all over the world of football. You are just stuck in your own football myth-world, making up points I never made to prove your non-point in an argument I never made.Is it possible that we can get someone age 30-31 that works out? Yes. Did I ever say it could not? No! (straw man #2 on your part.) But the odds are against it and I don't want us making decisions that are less likely to work than not, given limited resources. That's all. I don't want him and have made it very clear why. If you disagree, great. But please stop making up my arguments for me and being insulting in the process, thank you very fucking much.Futher... this thread is about transfers and opinions about possible transfers. If you REALLY believe Gallen is that great and beyond all question or opinion, then why are you posting on this thread at all? Just let him make the decisions and say "Amen." I assume that is is because ohhhh, I dunno, this is message board of opinions? So tell you what, give yours, I'll give mine, and there we go. But please stop trying to be my teacher on all things Charlton. If I want some help on that front, I have about 50 people on this board I would pick before you.
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Calm down.
You referenced transfer market FFS. It is not valid.
You law of large numbers is nonsense in this context because you haven't consulted large numbers, you had a quick look at a football forum and because not all opinions are equally valid.
If I need an operation I can consult 1000 people on Charlton Life or one surgeon. Who's opinion is more valid?
You dismissed Yann as an outlier then quote Marshall.
Yann was a risk, Powell knew that but took the risk against all the many Leicester fans views. Powell using human judgement, not stats.
So not only contradicting your own nonsense theory but proving exactly how inexact selecting players is. Marshall, a Robinson signing, had been excellent the previous season but he got injured but also had played well in 442 at Bradford but struggled in a 4231.
As said it is an art not a science.
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It’s called ‘odds’ because the numbers being offered are different eg 3 to 1, 5 to 2 etc. When the numbers match ie 1 to 1, it’s called ‘evens’. Rocket science I know but there you go.NapaAddick said:
Going with the odds works more than going against them. Fact. That's why it's called odds.cantersaddick said:
Napa does love his moneyball shiteNapaAddick said:Athletico Charlton said:
I know nowt about him but no one on the Leicester boards had a decent thing to say about Yann when he joined us and he was exceptional and should undoubtedly have played PL football for longer than he did IMO.NapaAddick said:
Perhaps. But I trust their own fans, who have seen him in person for some time. Not one person on their board want him back. That alone is good enough for me. His value in Transfermarkt has dropped 4 straight years, a bad sign, And paying a transfer fee to get a midfielder who will be 31 this season is very unlikely to be a wise investment, in my opinion.cafcfan1990 said:
Not fair to judge him on goals, the bloke is a defensive midfielder. And there will be numerous players deemed not good enough for our Championship rivals who could do a job for us.NapaAddick said:So lets see about Liam Bridcutt.Is age 30, late for most midfielders. He has 1 goal in 178 matches in The Championship over his whole career. He was signed by Sunderland for £4.2M in 2014 and has since been sold for less than that twice by clubs wanting to offload him and now this will be offload number three. He is not good enough for another team in our own division and after looking at the Forest Forum page, no one there will miss him.I call that a "pass."So the old... "there is one exception way over here, way back when, that disproves the multitude of studies that say the contrary" theory?It's the same thing I was mentioning in another thread... people always find one or two outliers and then project that fallacy out that the basic argument is flawed. Mountains of studies show players peak by age 25-27 and generally start declining afterwards. One study even shows the peak is 23-25. (Defenders peak between 25-29, across studies, as do keepers.) By age 30 you are taking a real big risk, not just with quality but with injuries too. I do not wish to hope we are the outlier-geniuses that find the diamond in the rough that disproves the aggregate of facts and odds.We are a small club and to fight the very established odds (to me) is a big mistake. We need to go with the odds and make every player count, not hope some 30-31 year old being told he can leave another club in our division because he is not good enough is somehow going to morph from a frog to a swan under Lee's care. For a transfer fee no less. At least that is how I see it. If anyone wants links to data and studies on when football players peak, PM me. I have studies by universities, economists and FIFA, itself, for those interested.
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NA=TD FACT3
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I’m confused
is Napa actually Driessen? Or Jesus Christ5 -
Players peak in their mid to late 20s. Those players also tend to be expensive.
We have a League 1 budget. Most of our signings will be young players on the up and older players past their peak.
We need the right balance, hence Pearce’s extended contract. He’ll be 32 during the season. Like last season he might not be a regular, but with a lot of young players his character, experience and leadership is even more important to have in the squad. Same with Pratley, Solly and Taylor.
Bowyer talked about adding a few more experienced players, clearly he doesn’t think the four above is enough. I’m sure out of the 6/7 Bowyer wants at least a couple will be older players, but Bowyer and Gallen will use their judgement of which stats will be part of to decide who to target.
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Just caught up on 10 pages of this thread & the only rumour I've seen is that Napa coild be Driessen
I'll never learn!4 -
Diesen recommend Jesus as data from napa suggested he was good on crossesSwisdom said:I’m confused
is Napa actually Driessen? Or Jesus Christ6 -
Think wages would be a problem with Bridcutt , was tidy enough a few years back for Brighton.0
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roseandcrown said:
Diesen recommend Jesus as data from napa suggested he was good on crossesSwisdom said:I’m confused
is Napa actually Driessen? Or Jesus Christ
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Look at this way though napa. We have just extended Pearce’s contract and most are very happy with that.NapaAddick said:So lets see about Liam Bridcutt.Is age 30, late for most midfielders. He has 1 goal in 178 matches in The Championship over his whole career. He was signed by Sunderland for £4.2M in 2014 and has since been sold for less than that twice by clubs wanting to offload him and now this will be offload number three. He is not good enough for another team in our own division and after looking at the Forest Forum page, no one there will miss him.I call that a "pass."
Based on your views/stats on bridcutt it would suggest Pearce would not be a good signing. Stats I assume would suggest his value going down, not played as many games etc but as we know from him being at Charlton he is a very good player and just as important character and experienced professional.
Bridcutt for me in this squad would be a improvement on pratley (due to age) and provide experience etc.0 -
Apologies if mentioned already but isn’t Jamie Ward available on a free? Signed a four year deal with forest summer of 2015? Be worth a punt.0
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Think we need to look higher than that now we are in the champ - he’s 33 and on loan wasn’t exactly a star..... just alright.BR7_addick said:Apologies if mentioned already but isn’t Jamie Ward available on a free? Signed a four year deal with forest summer of 2015? Be worth a punt.
i say we need to look higher - be interested to see whether that’s even possible on our budget2 -
Understood but didn’t bowyer mentioned experiences championship players, and be good back up to Williams if he signs.DamoNorthStand said:
Think we need to look higher than that now we are in the champ - he’s 33 and on loan wasn’t exactly a star..... just alright.BR7_addick said:Apologies if mentioned already but isn’t Jamie Ward available on a free? Signed a four year deal with forest summer of 2015? Be worth a punt.
i say we need to look higher - be interested to see whether that’s even possible on our budget0 -
Napa mate. You've more than once referenced economists and papers by economists.
I am a professional economist I work in government here. I use analysis to provide the evidence on which policy decisions are based. I have also produced more than 50 official stats releases in the last 4 years.
If anyone is an advocate of the use of data and evidence in sport it's me. I read a number of analysis based football and cricket blogs. The dream is that one day once I've set myself up to move into working in sports analysis - more likely cricket than football.
There is a difference between me - someone who does this for a living, has a degree and professional qualifications in this stuff. And you someone who (at least this is how it comes across) has read a book a bit of stuff on the internet about it. The difference is that I know that beneath every stat is a number of assumptions all of which will have a number of caveats. Not understanding these and the linitations they cause for the results is serious and the cause of a number of massive public failures in the last few years.
Any econometric model will have some serious caveats particularly when applied to something like football.
Money ball and the like sound great when you first hear it but when taken alone rarely actually works. Elements of it can be used in conjunction with other traditional parts of football (scouting, the human side etc.) But you need much more than that.
People often quote Southampton and the work they did under Les Reed as proof it works similarly Brentford at the moment. But that is completely missing the point. The stats and analysis were simply one point of a massive wider piece of work. It's the one that gets talked about most but it was actually only a small part.
The point is when used right analysis is invaluable but when too much weight on it can become useless.
Your assertion that we shouldn't sign anyone over the age of 29 as they would have no resale value is laughable. Yes we would want players with resale value but players also provide value in other ways. Such as what they bring on the pitch (you know the actual football) and what they bring off the pitch in terms of passing on experience and the atmosphere around the camp.
We have had numerous players in the last few years who have come in on 1 or 2 year deals towards the end of their career and been hugely valuable on this sense. Look at Pratley last season or before him Hughes or even Euell when he returned. Ricardo fuller came in and did a job for a year and was key in us staying out the relegation battle that season. Like in every workplace you need a mix of ages and experiences to get the best out of a squad as a whole.
The situation we are in a few players with experience who can come in on short term deals do a job for us and guide the younger players through tougher situations may well be enough to keep us up.19 -
As a young man who was strong on assists. I remember Judy Sill saying he was a crossmakerroseandcrown said:
Diesen recommend Jesus as data from napa suggested he was good on crossesSwisdom said:I’m confused
is Napa actually Driessen? Or Jesus Christ0
