Napa mate. You've more than once referenced economists and papers by economists.
I am a professional economist I work in government here. I use analysis to provide the evidence on which policy decisions are based. I have also produced more than 50 official stats releases in the last 4 years.
If anyone is an advocate of the use of data and evidence in sport it's me. I read a number of analysis based football and cricket blogs. The dream is that one day once I've set myself up to move into working in sports analysis - more likely cricket than football.
There is a difference between me - someone who does this for a living, has a degree and professional qualifications in this stuff. And you someone who (at least this is how it comes across) has read a book a bit of stuff on the internet about it. The difference is that I know that beneath every stat is a number of assumptions all of which will have a number of caveats. Not understanding these and the linitations they cause for the results is serious and the cause of a number of massive public failures in the last few years.
Any econometric model will have some serious caveats particularly when applied to something like football.
Money ball and the like sound great when you first hear it but when taken alone rarely actually works. Elements of it can be used in conjunction with other traditional parts of football (scouting, the human side etc.) But you need much more than that.
People often quote Southampton and the work they did under Les Reed as proof it works similarly Brentford at the moment. But that is completely missing the point. The stats and analysis were simply one point of a massive wider piece of work. It's the one that gets talked about most but it was actually only a small part.
The point is when used right analysis is invaluable but when too much weight on it can become useless.
Your assertion that we shouldn't sign anyone over the age of 29 as they would have no resale value is laughable. Yes we would want players with resale value but players also provide value in other ways. Such as what they bring on the pitch (you know the actual football) and what they bring off the pitch in terms of passing on experience and the atmosphere around the camp.
We have had numerous players in the last few years who have come in on 1 or 2 year deals towards the end of their career and been hugely valuable on this sense. Look at Pratley last season or before him Hughes or even Euell when he returned. Ricardo fuller came in and did a job for a year and was key in us staying out the relegation battle that season. Like in every workplace you need a mix of ages and experiences to get the best out of a squad as a whole.
The situation we are in a few players with experience who can come in on short term deals do a job for us and guide the younger players through tougher situations may well be enough to keep us up.
Napa mate. You've more than once referenced economists and papers by economists.
I am a professional economist I work in government here. I use analysis to provide the evidence on which policy decisions are based. I have also produced more than 50 official stats releases in the last 4 years.
If anyone is an advocate of the use of data and evidence in sport it's me. I read a number of analysis based football and cricket blogs. The dream is that one day once I've set myself up to move into working in sports analysis - more likely cricket than football.
There is a difference between me - someone who does this for a living, has a degree and professional qualifications in this stuff. And you someone who (at least this is how it comes across) has read a book a bit of stuff on the internet about it. The difference is that I know that beneath every stat is a number of assumptions all of which will have a number of caveats. Not understanding these and the linitations they cause for the results is serious and the cause of a number of massive public failures in the last few years.
Any econometric model will have some serious caveats particularly when applied to something like football.
Money ball and the like sound great when you first hear it but when taken alone rarely actually works. Elements of it can be used in conjunction with other traditional parts of football (scouting, the human side etc.) But you need much more than that.
People often quote Southampton and the work they did under Les Reed as proof it works similarly Brentford at the moment. But that is completely missing the point. The stats and analysis were simply one point of a massive wider piece of work. It's the one that gets talked about most but it was actually only a small part.
The point is when used right analysis is invaluable but when too much weight on it can become useless.
Your assertion that we shouldn't sign anyone over the age of 29 as they would have no resale value is laughable. Yes we would want players with resale value but players also provide value in other ways. Such as what they bring on the pitch (you know the actual football) and what they bring off the pitch in terms of passing on experience and the atmosphere around the camp.
We have had numerous players in the last few years who have come in on 1 or 2 year deals towards the end of their career and been hugely valuable on this sense. Look at Pratley last season or before him Hughes or even Euell when he returned. Ricardo fuller came in and did a job for a year and was key in us staying out the relegation battle that season. Like in every workplace you need a mix of ages and experiences to get the best out of a squad as a whole.
The situation we are in a few players with experience who can come in on short term deals do a job for us and guide the younger players through tougher situations may well be enough to keep us up.
hear, hear
Seconded.
I think the emotion of writing that meant you were lapse on spell check and your punctuation has wavered. But please do not take this criticism to heart, as I am only a layman. The CL grammar police should be along in due course.
BTW, I hope you achieve your goal to work in sport, as I like ambition in a young person... being old and warty!
Which position would you say is at Championship standard?
Think our back 5, Taylor and Aneke are all decent champ standard (we will be lower end of this division), Main concern is second striker and the midfield but I have no doubt Bow and Gallen are well aware of this and looking to improve dramatically.
All gone very quite. Our midfield is a mid table league one midfield, if that, as things stand. Worrying.
Calm down, what would you have said our midfield was on the opening game of the season against Sunderland in 2018 compared to what it was at the final whistle in the play off final. In Bowyer we trust.
Which position would you say is at Championship standard?
Think our back 5, Taylor and Aneke are all decent champ standard (we will be lower end of this division), Main concern is second striker and the midfield but I have no doubt Bow and Gallen are well aware of this and looking to improve dramatically.
How can we say the front two are decent champ standard when neither of them have ever played at that level?!
To say the whole team is league one is way off if you ask me;
Phillips - improving all the time Dijksteel - will step up no probs Page/Purr - will step up no probs Lockyer - time will tell Sarr/Pearce - will both do a job Pratley - been there before Lapslie - league one ATM Morgan - league one ATM JFC - no probs(when fully fit) Aneke - time will tell Taylor - no probs
Squad is thin I’m sure we all agree but the XI isn’t that far off being competitive IMO.
Which position would you say is at Championship standard?
Think our back 5, Taylor and Aneke are all decent champ standard (we will be lower end of this division), Main concern is second striker and the midfield but I have no doubt Bow and Gallen are well aware of this and looking to improve dramatically.
How can we say the front two are decent champ standard when neither of them have ever played at that level?!
To say the whole team is league one is way off if you ask me;
Phillips - improving all the time Dijksteel - will step up no probs Page/Purr - will step up no probs Lockyer - time will tell Sarr/Pearce - will both do a job Pratley - been there before Lapslie - league one ATM Morgan - league one ATM JFC - no probs(when fully fit) Aneke - time will tell Taylor - no probs
Squad is thin I’m sure we all agree but the XI isn’t that far off being competitive IMO.
I think that's fair. Although I think lapslie and Morgan can step up, but as young players we'll need to blood them carefully and will need experienced heads around them. Williams could help tick that box.
Which position would you say is at Championship standard?
Think our back 5, Taylor and Aneke are all decent champ standard (we will be lower end of this division), Main concern is second striker and the midfield but I have no doubt Bow and Gallen are well aware of this and looking to improve dramatically.
Our current 2nd striker has only played non league, I believe. Taylor has never played above league one, although might make the step up, either way, our current strike force is, at best, League One standard。
Who in our back 5 has proven themselves at Champ standard? I really hope you're right but without some amazing loans, we're really gonna struggle。
All gone very quite. Our midfield is a mid table league one midfield, if that, as things stand. Worrying.
Calm down, what would you have said our midfield was on the opening game of the season against Sunderland in 2018 compared to what it was at the final whistle in the play off final. In Bowyer we trust.
Difference is that league one and the championship are hugely different. You may get away with it for the first few games in league one as we did last season. You will get turned over easily in the championship.
I share the confidence people have in Bowyer and Gallen and I trust them to do the best job possible. But they are operating at a higher level, within very tight financial constraints, where we aren’t one of the bigger or more attractive clubs in the division, in a club which is still in turmoil, without any executive management and with an owner who can be most charitably described as eccentric and misguided. There are limits to what Bowyer and Gallen can do and it is not a negative reflection on them when I say we are very likely to have a squad that is seriously under strength for the season ahead.
All gone very quite. Our midfield is a mid table league one midfield, if that, as things stand. Worrying.
Calm down, what would you have said our midfield was on the opening game of the season against Sunderland in 2018 compared to what it was at the final whistle in the play off final. In Bowyer we trust.
Difference is that league one and the championship are hugely different. You may get away with it for the first few games in league one as we did last season. You will get turned over easily in the championship.
The fact of the matter is we're in a similar position to Accrington and AFC Wimbledon when they came into League One, in the sense that we're now a small fish in a big pond
Its clear that the former had an excellent start to life in League One last season and only slowly started to get found out as the season progressed, still they managed to survive and found themselves in mid-table... Whats the say we're not going to do the same in the Championship this time around, budgets play an important part in a season but they dont entirely dictate where a team ends up!!
I too have a lot of confidence in Bowyer and Gallen but to suggest that we have a Championship standard for any of the players is at this point unknown. Some will make the step up and some won’t. It won’t necessarily be the obvious players that do or don’t either.
We have a small small budget and it’s highly unlikely we will be doing anything other than take educated guesses on league one players that Gallen thinks can step up.
It's hard to judge us at the moment, as the loan players who comes in won't be just to "flesh out the squad" they'll be mainly 1st teamers, expected to start. Add Bielik and Curren (or the equivalent) plus a striker to the 1st team and it will look very different.
All gone very quite. Our midfield is a mid table league one midfield, if that, as things stand. Worrying.
Calm down, what would you have said our midfield was on the opening game of the season against Sunderland in 2018 compared to what it was at the final whistle in the play off final. In Bowyer we trust.
Difference is that league one and the championship are hugely different. You may get away with it for the first few games in league one as we did last season. You will get turned over easily in the championship.
The fact of the matter is we're in a similar position to Accrington and AFC Wimbledon when they came into League One, in the sense that we're now a small fish in a big pond
Its clear that the former had an excellent start to life in League One last season and only slowly started to get found out as the season progressed, still they managed to survive and found themselves in mid-table... Whats the say we're not going to do the same in the Championship this time around, budgets play an important part in a season but they dont entirely dictate where a team ends up!!
I can categorically tell you we will not go up next season and any talk of promotion is ridiculous. There is a huge difference between the quality in league one and the Championship, we currently have a weaker squad than we did last year.
So from the 2011/12 team we only had the below who had previous Championship experience
Michael Morrison | Leon Cort | Andy Hughes | Johnnie Jackson Danny Haynes | Bradley Wright-Phillips | Yann Kermorgant
From the current squad:
Jason Pearce | Chris Solly | Ben Purrington | Naby Sarr Darren Pratley | Jake Forster-Caskey
So there is basically one player difference in terms of that experience, now that team in 2012/13 finished 9th with the signings of Kerkar | Gower | Fuller | Wilson | Dervite
Again the two in bold the only two signings that had previous Championship experience
All gone very quite. Our midfield is a mid table league one midfield, if that, as things stand. Worrying.
Calm down, what would you have said our midfield was on the opening game of the season against Sunderland in 2018 compared to what it was at the final whistle in the play off final. In Bowyer we trust.
Difference is that league one and the championship are hugely different. You may get away with it for the first few games in league one as we did last season. You will get turned over easily in the championship.
The fact of the matter is we're in a similar position to Accrington and AFC Wimbledon when they came into League One, in the sense that we're now a small fish in a big pond
Its clear that the former had an excellent start to life in League One last season and only slowly started to get found out as the season progressed, still they managed to survive and found themselves in mid-table... Whats the say we're not going to do the same in the Championship this time around, budgets play an important part in a season but they dont entirely dictate where a team ends up!!
I can categorically tell you we will not go up next season and any talk of promotion is ridiculous. There is a huge difference between the quality in league one and the Championship, we currently have a weaker squad than we did last year.
Sorry where did I say we'd be going up?
I'm talking about us doing the same in the Championship as what Accrington did in League One as per my opening line
Comments
He is a goalie.
Think how many times you have seen “Jesus saves”.
I think the emotion of writing that meant you were lapse on spell check and your punctuation has wavered. But please do not take this criticism to heart, as I am only a layman. The CL grammar police should be along in due course.
BTW, I hope you achieve your goal to work in sport, as I like ambition in a young person... being old and warty!
a) new signing (loan or perm)
b) another contract extension
c) kit launch
It's Friday, and they'll want to end the week (and go into Welling) with some good news
Phillips - improving all the time
Dijksteel - will step up no probs
Page/Purr - will step up no probs
Lockyer - time will tell
Sarr/Pearce - will both do a job
Pratley - been there before
Lapslie - league one ATM
Morgan - league one ATM
JFC - no probs(when fully fit)
Aneke - time will tell
Taylor - no probs
Squad is thin I’m sure we all agree but the XI isn’t that far off being competitive IMO.
Exactly what I was about to post
Who in our back 5 has proven themselves at Champ standard? I really hope you're right but without some amazing loans, we're really gonna struggle。
Its clear that the former had an excellent start to life in League One last season and only slowly started to get found out as the season progressed, still they managed to survive and found themselves in mid-table... Whats the say we're not going to do the same in the Championship this time around, budgets play an important part in a season but they dont entirely dictate where a team ends up!!
We have a small small budget and it’s highly unlikely we will be doing anything other than take educated guesses on league one players that Gallen thinks can step up.
Michael Morrison | Leon Cort | Andy Hughes | Johnnie Jackson
Danny Haynes | Bradley Wright-Phillips | Yann Kermorgant
From the current squad:
Jason Pearce | Chris Solly | Ben Purrington | Naby Sarr
Darren Pratley | Jake Forster-Caskey
So there is basically one player difference in terms of that experience, now that team in 2012/13 finished 9th with the signings of Kerkar | Gower | Fuller | Wilson | Dervite
Again the two in bold the only two signings that had previous Championship experience
I'm talking about us doing the same in the Championship as what Accrington did in League One as per my opening line