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Official Grand National 2014 Thread

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Comments

  • Absurdistan
    Absurdistan Posts: 8,024
    Had a small punt on Vintage Star Peanuts. Just feel it has a touch of class and is well handicapped.
  • meldrew66
    meldrew66 Posts: 2,563
    Ok, so it's T43, Monbeg Dude, Mountainous, The Package and Chance Du Roy for me as per Peanuts' modelling. £10 e/w on each and a bumper payday all round (hopefully). I need this after an appalling Cheltenham.

    Cheers PM for adding some interest to the gloomy post-Xmas period.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,724
    edited April 2014
    Absurdistan said:

    Had a small punt on Vintage Star Peanuts. Just feel it has a touch of class and is well handicapped.

    He's a grand horse and looks every inch a National type. If he'd have stood up at Cheltenham he would have been there or thereabouts on stats but got to stick with my model. Head (aka spreadsheet) must rule heart.
    Even so, his stat-profile suggests a bold show.
  • smiffyboy
    smiffyboy Posts: 4,314
    Swing Bill been made 1st reserve
  • Sonicstud85
    Sonicstud85 Posts: 2,161
    If i bet on Swing Bill and he doesnt run? Do i get my stake refunded?
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,724
    edited April 2014
    smiffyboy said:

    Swing Bill been made 1st reserve

    He will be 1st Reserve if there are no defections in the 40 at Thursday's declarations - it is then that the Reserves are established.
    He'll be guaranteed a run if at least 1 of the 40 above him now comes out at declarations or, if he is a Reserve, if one scratches by 9am Friday.
    So, very likely to run (#41 at this stage did in all of last 4 GNs) but always worth going NRNB (virtually all bookies are now NRNB) so that if he doesn't run for any reason you get your stake refunded.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,724
    edited April 2014
    meldrew66 said:

    Ok, so it's T43, Monbeg Dude, Mountainous, The Package and Chance Du Roy for me as per Peanuts' modelling. £10 e/w on each and a bumper payday all round (hopefully). I need this after an appalling Cheltenham.

    Cheers PM for adding some interest to the gloomy post-Xmas period.

    Good luck Chief and thanks for the vote of confidence. Hope this isn't the year it all goes pear shaped.
    I always tell myself not to dabble at Cheltenham because for every hot day punting at the Festival I have at least 3 cold ones. Ignored myself yet again of course. Time for Vic and Paddy to return (with interest) some of Mrs Molloy's holiday funds, temporarily in their keeping.
  • Absurdistan
    Absurdistan Posts: 8,024
    Off to Hollywood then peanuts











    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/Hollywood/@52.3918148,-1.8802387,15z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x4870bed42d03b3f3:0xe583e813d1de2909











  • smiffyboy
    smiffyboy Posts: 4,314
    Sonicstud85 said:

    If i bet on Swing Bill and he doesnt run? Do i get my stake refunded?

    Only if the bookies that you place your bet with are offering non runner no bet but this sometimes is returned via a free bet so check first
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    after last year`s rip roring success, im a score into each of the horse`s on your model.

    no regrets from me if they dont come in , only bet what u would have peeshed up the wall anyway.

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  • nth_london_addick
    nth_london_addick Posts: 35,919
    Yep I am all over the peanut formula

    10 ew on each one
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,724
    Appreciate the vote of confidence chaps. Fingers crossed.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,724
    edited April 2014
    Going on the GN course late this afternoon was Good to Soft, a few Good places, Soft at the Canal Turn.
    Unsettled forecast for tomorrow and Thursday, dry but overcast Friday, showery Saturday. Mind you that's from the BBC Weather website so probably crap. Nonetheless, sufficient precipitation appears likely so as to keep it GS or thereabouts.

    Softer ground might increase the chances of Last Time d'Albain opting for the Topham, which would guarantee Bill a run.
  • len90
    len90 Posts: 143
    Can someone please explain the difference between Betfair and Betfair Sportsbook? Betfair seem to offer a better price on just about everything.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,724
    edited April 2014
    len90 said:

    Can someone please explain the difference between Betfair and Betfair Sportsbook? Betfair seem to offer a better price on just about everything.

    Have only used Betfair Sportsbook once but I assume it's Betfair acting as a bookie (laying as a Principal), rather than as an Exchange where other punters are the layers.
    Open to correction if that isn't right.
    Only used it once because, like a lot of small bookies, the maximum ante post stake on my selection was irritatingly small.

    PS Looks like your advice re Monbeg Dude was spot on len. Tightening all the time and could easily flip flop with T43 come Saturday. Though AP looks like he's leaning towards the 8y-o "77" rather than risk another bone-crushing exit on Colbert Station. ;0)
  • len90
    len90 Posts: 143
    Yes that could be an attempt by Betfair to grab a bigger share of the market. Anything connected with Royalty or a celebrity always attracts money. I see the Dude is only 5/2 to start favourite. I don't really fancy anything AP is being linked with. But Burton Port and Wayward Prince are two i am considering for a combination forecast.
  • pettgra
    pettgra Posts: 1,573
    I have had a punt on the GN for the last 45 years and have yet to pick the winner, I even backed Red Rum when it lost.
    I have not decided yet on my next loser; but apologies to anyone who has a punt on the same nag as me.
  • paulbaconsarnie
    paulbaconsarnie Posts: 9,426
    len90 said:

    Can someone please explain the difference between Betfair and Betfair Sportsbook? Betfair seem to offer a better price on just about everything.

    Betfair is the exchange (where you can also be the bookie as well as the punter).
    Sportsbook appeared soon after betfair swallowed up bluesquare.
  • Addick Addict
    Addick Addict Posts: 39,849
    len90 said:

    Can someone please explain the difference between Betfair and Betfair Sportsbook? Betfair seem to offer a better price on just about everything.

    Having previously worked for Betfair in the horseracing department for over 10 years I can give you a couple of simple answers to the question and reasons for having both:

    The company felt that it would be a good way to introduce punters who were used to using traditional bookmakers and that those customers might then migrate to using the Exchange. It also allowed them to offer markets where layers on the Exchange weren't providing sufficient liquidity to make those markets viable to run.

    And of course there is a bigger profit margin if the customer chose not to use the Exchange!
  • Lincsaddick
    Lincsaddick Posts: 32,369
    Thanks peanuts, a terrific and coherent analysis as always

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  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,724
    pettgra said:

    I have had a punt on the GN for the last 45 years and have yet to pick the winner, I even backed Red Rum when it lost.
    I have not decided yet on my next loser; but apologies to anyone who has a punt on the same nag as me.

    Be sure to give as steer pettgra.
    I may have to develop a new negative stat in my model - the "pettgra finger of doom" ;o)
    Better luck this year.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,724
    Lincsaddick said:

    Thanks peanuts, a terrific and coherent analysis as always

    Too kind Lincs.
    Always happy to share my model's prognostications though, without doubt, one of these days my system is going to draw a complete blank. Till then at least, I've just got to go with it.........................fingers crossed.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,724
    edited April 2014
    Sportingbet (for whatever reason - gathering new accounts presumably) have lengthened their prices on most GN runners and are now sole top price on a number (all 5 places e/w NRNB):

    T43 10
    Rocky Creek 22
    PdB 22
    Pineau de Re 22
    Triolo d'Alene 22
    Lion Na Bearnai 40
    Hawkes Point 50
    Alvarado 50
    Mr Moonshine 50
    Mountainous 50
    Vintage Star 50
    Buckers Bridge 66
    Swing Bill 80
    Golan Way 80
    Lost Glory 80
    Twirling Magnet 80

  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,724
    If you don't like a stat-based system for picking your GN selections, try this one....................another vote for the Dude



    http://www.leamingtonobserver.co.uk/2014/04/02/news-Hatton-Adventure-World's-wooly-jumpers-predict-Grand-National-winner-101035.html
  • pettgra
    pettgra Posts: 1,573
    PeanutsMolloy said:

    pettgra said:

    I have had a punt on the GN for the last 45 years and have yet to pick the winner, I even backed Red Rum when it lost.
    I have not decided yet on my next loser; but apologies to anyone who has a punt on the same nag as me.

    Be sure to give as steer pettgra.
    I may have to develop a new negative stat in my model - the "pettgra finger of doom" ;o)
    Better luck this year.
    Will do Peanuts. I am going to purposely avoid the ones that you selected as I would rather lose than put the jonah on them.
    Or just maybe I will not, because this could be the first of many. Hope you and all the above lifers stuff the bookies.
  • oldbloke
    oldbloke Posts: 931
    Sky bet doing 2-1 The New One for new customers tomorrow.
  • len90
    len90 Posts: 143
    PeanutsMolloy said:

    If you don't like a stat-based system for picking your GN selections, try this one....................another vote for the Dude

    Sunnyhillboy got third and he isn't even running



    http://www.leamingtonobserver.co.uk/2014/04/02/news-Hatton-Adventure-World's-wooly-jumpers-predict-Grand-National-winner-101035.html

  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,724
    edited April 2014
    pettgra said:

    PeanutsMolloy said:

    pettgra said:

    I have had a punt on the GN for the last 45 years and have yet to pick the winner, I even backed Red Rum when it lost.
    I have not decided yet on my next loser; but apologies to anyone who has a punt on the same nag as me.

    Be sure to give as steer pettgra.
    I may have to develop a new negative stat in my model - the "pettgra finger of doom" ;o)
    Better luck this year.
    Will do Peanuts. I am going to purposely avoid the ones that you selected as I would rather lose than put the jonah on them.
    Or just maybe I will not, because this could be the first of many. Hope you and all the above lifers stuff the bookies.
    Cheers Chief,
    There is definitely such a thing as mean reversion.
    Maybe 45 years is a long time to wait for it to take effect but once pettgra gets on a roll........Vic and Paddy are gonna take one helluva beating!
  • len90
    len90 Posts: 143
    Thanks Paul & Addict.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,724
    edited April 2014
    PeanutsMolloy said:

    Sportingbet (for whatever reason - gathering new accounts presumably) have lengthened their prices on most GN runners and are now sole top price on a number (all 5 places e/w NRNB):

    T43 10
    Rocky Creek 22
    PdB 22
    Pineau de Re 22
    Triolo d'Alene 22
    Lion Na Bearnai 40
    Hawkes Point 50
    Alvarado 50
    Mr Moonshine 50
    Mountainous 50
    Vintage Star 50
    Buckers Bridge 66
    Swing Bill 80
    Golan Way 80
    Lost Glory 80
    Twirling Magnet 80

    sportingbet also sole top price Monbeg Dude & Long Run, both 16/1
    Would think it won't last long.

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