its a fascinating debate around in my view the decolonisation of the Post Soviet Russian 'Empire', some arguing they have been treated as a defeated nation, others also question the wisdom of the aggressive pace of EU expansion particularly right up to the borders of the Russian Federation. At the same time you can absolutely understand those weaker client states wanting to gain real autonomy and security.
It doesn't help much that Putin's Authoritarian regime is in power - and has held on to it by going against the spirit if of their constitution in flipping between President and PM.
To me what is going on in Ukraine to some extent is a reflection of those issues, and a painful contraction of Russian influence. The presence of large Russian populations in these states is always going to make things complicated.
Some call it a coup but I prefer to look at what comes after an overthrow like this, i.e. martial law Thailand, Egypt, or in Ukraine, elections.
Specifically I am sorry if you feel I willfully misinterpreted your view, but I'm genuinely trying to work out what action exactly the EU took which you consider mistaken.
It's established that Yanukovic was voted in with a mandate to sign an accession agreement with the EU. Do you assert that the EU should never have offered it I the first place?
The other aspect of this is that the EU is widely criticized and rightly, for not having a coherent foreign policy. But that is hardly surprising when 27 countries have to agree. So I believe that various national politicians may have encouraged various Ukrainian politicians, and when it backfired they hid behind "the EU".
I have never imagined you to be a UKIP supporter, and I also have the highest respect for Len Glover's views. UKIP itself, that's another matter
Forget about it Chief. I never thought you'd wilfully misinterpreted my view, just made unwarranted assumptions. It is what (the main) Western powers individually and the EU collectively have failed to do that is the problem: 1. They failed to appreciate the sensitivity of Russia to Ukraine getting closer to the West. Putin, evidently, saw an EU Agreement with Ukraine as taking one step along the road that could end up as full EU and NATO membership. I know that 20:20 hindsight is a wonderful thing but the West had misread Putin from the start and, as a result, failed to foresee an obvious risk to Ukrainian integrity and independence. Obvious because EU and NATO membership has been the final destination of the 3 Baltic States. No doubt, they thought that Putin had "permitted" that in 2004 so what would be the problem? But Ukraine hosted its Black Sea fleet FFS. Unless the West did some serious courting of Putin in advance, he would likely not happily contemplate his fleet harboured in a nation potentially about to commence an inexorable move to NATO membership. When Yanukovych was ousted, from Putin's perspective it was better to intervene sooner rather than later and take possession, directly or indirectly, of strategically vital territory. 2. They failed to respond meaningfully to Russia's flagrant breach of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, co-signed with UK and US, which guaranteed the integrity of Ukraine's borders. The comment applies as much to the EU as this was also a flagrant breach of international law to which all leading powers should have responded meaningfully. "Sanctions" against individuals deemed to be close to Putin are a laughable response and makes it clear to Putin and the Ukrainians (Western-oriented and pro-Russian alike) that the main Western powers and the EU are not prepared to pay the price of any meaningful sanctions. They, therefore, offer no deterrent to continued aggression against Ukrainian freedom and stability posed by Putin and his thugs. As I said, "all mouth and no trousers" and friends that I have that have close connections with Ukrainians in Lvov tell me that there is considerable disappointment at the lack of meaningful support from the main Western powers and the EU. BTW, I may or may not have sympathies with UKIP but what political party I (or anyone) support is surely completely irrelevant to the truth concerning this atrocious and shameful state of affairs. The irony is that we appear to be substantially in agreement. )
I agree with most of this analysis except on a few points. Firstly, I think the Russian response would have been pretty much the same irrespective if the Russian President was Putin or somebody else. I know the cold war has ended but Russia is still the super power in that region and it has interests it will defend.
I sometimes wonder if the problems we are seeing here and elsewhere in the world are due to a pervasive ageism in the West. It is like the advisers and decision makers in organisations such as the CIA, NATO, EU, and the UK government are all 30 and 40 years old and didn't experience the Cold War and have not properly studied its history. If the advisers and decision makers in these organisations were in their 50's and 60's I am confident we would not see so much conflict with Russia. If the EU wants to expand I think it should be making overtures to Russia about it joining the EU instead of talking to facist and nazi groups in smaller countries on Russia's borders.
Secondly, this analysis takes no account of the fact that the vast majority of the population in Crimea and East Ukraine see their freedom and stability being dependent on closer ties with Russia. The separatist rebellion didn't happen in a vacuum and is not solely down to Russian agitators.
Thirdly, Western governments should not talk about international law and respecting the integrity of international borders until they have effected a meaningful response to the flagrant breach of the Palestinian borders these last 50 years.
had Putin not been in power perhaps states like Ukraine wouldn't be so concerned about their autonomy and security. Interesting the chair of the defence select committee on newsnight last night mentioned the cyber attacks on Estonia way back, then there is action in Georgia and elsewhere. You could also ask why the separatists didn't act when the EU treaty was first agreed. The evidence suggests Russian units that had seen action in Chechnya out of uniform crossed over to help secure Russian interests.
Specifically I am sorry if you feel I willfully misinterpreted your view, but I'm genuinely trying to work out what action exactly the EU took which you consider mistaken.
It's established that Yanukovic was voted in with a mandate to sign an accession agreement with the EU. Do you assert that the EU should never have offered it I the first place?
The other aspect of this is that the EU is widely criticized and rightly, for not having a coherent foreign policy. But that is hardly surprising when 27 countries have to agree. So I believe that various national politicians may have encouraged various Ukrainian politicians, and when it backfired they hid behind "the EU".
I have never imagined you to be a UKIP supporter, and I also have the highest respect for Len Glover's views. UKIP itself, that's another matter
Forget about it Chief. I never thought you'd wilfully misinterpreted my view, just made unwarranted assumptions. It is what (the main) Western powers individually and the EU collectively have failed to do that is the problem: 1. They failed to appreciate the sensitivity of Russia to Ukraine getting closer to the West. Putin, evidently, saw an EU Agreement with Ukraine as taking one step along the road that could end up as full EU and NATO membership. I know that 20:20 hindsight is a wonderful thing but the West had misread Putin from the start and, as a result, failed to foresee an obvious risk to Ukrainian integrity and independence. Obvious because EU and NATO membership has been the final destination of the 3 Baltic States. No doubt, they thought that Putin had "permitted" that in 2004 so what would be the problem? But Ukraine hosted its Black Sea fleet FFS. Unless the West did some serious courting of Putin in advance, he would likely not happily contemplate his fleet harboured in a nation potentially about to commence an inexorable move to NATO membership. When Yanukovych was ousted, from Putin's perspective it was better to intervene sooner rather than later and take possession, directly or indirectly, of strategically vital territory. 2. They failed to respond meaningfully to Russia's flagrant breach of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, co-signed with UK and US, which guaranteed the integrity of Ukraine's borders. The comment applies as much to the EU as this was also a flagrant breach of international law to which all leading powers should have responded meaningfully. "Sanctions" against individuals deemed to be close to Putin are a laughable response and makes it clear to Putin and the Ukrainians (Western-oriented and pro-Russian alike) that the main Western powers and the EU are not prepared to pay the price of any meaningful sanctions. They, therefore, offer no deterrent to continued aggression against Ukrainian freedom and stability posed by Putin and his thugs. As I said, "all mouth and no trousers" and friends that I have that have close connections with Ukrainians in Lvov tell me that there is considerable disappointment at the lack of meaningful support from the main Western powers and the EU. BTW, I may or may not have sympathies with UKIP but what political party I (or anyone) support is surely completely irrelevant to the truth concerning this atrocious and shameful state of affairs. The irony is that we appear to be substantially in agreement. )
I agree with most of this analysis except on a few points. Firstly, I think the Russian response would have been pretty much the same irrespective if the Russian President was Putin or somebody else. I know the cold war has ended but Russia is still the super power in that region and it has interests it will defend.
I sometimes wonder if the problems we are seeing here and elsewhere in the world are due to a pervasive ageism in the West. It is like the advisers and decision makers in organisations such as the CIA, NATO, EU, and the UK government are all 30 and 40 years old and didn't experience the Cold War and have not properly studied its history. If the advisers and decision makers in these organisations were in their 50's and 60's I am confident we would not see so much conflict with Russia. If the EU wants to expand I think it should be making overtures to Russia about it joining the EU instead of talking to facist and nazi groups in smaller countries on Russia's borders.
Secondly, this analysis takes no account of the fact that the vast majority of the population in Crimea and East Ukraine see their freedom and stability been dependent on closer ties with Russia. The separatist rebellion didn't happen in a vacuum and is not solely down to Russian agitators.
Thirdly, Western governments should not talk about international law and respecting the integrity of international borders until they have effected a meaningful response to the flagrant breach of the Palestinian borders these last 50 years.
I'm guessing no bowler in your wardrobe Red_in_SE8 ;o)
had Putin not been in power perhaps states like Ukraine wouldn't be so concerned about their autonomy and security. Interesting the chair of the defence select committee on newsnight last night mentioned the cyber attacks on Estonia way back, then there is action in Georgia and elsewhere. You could also ask why the separatists didn't act when the EU treaty was first agreed. The evidence suggests Russian units that had seen action in Chechnya out of uniform crossed over to help secure Russian interests.
Interesting suggestion there.
Perhaps more so as I was doing some reading on The Yugoslav Wars (I.e The Balkans) and read about Russian involvement during The Srebenica Massacre.
What upon first reading may seem to be simply Orthodox Russians travelling to Serbia to fight in a conflict that had a religious element to it - akin to the radicalisation of Islamic youths all over the west at the moment - begins to look more sinister.
There was a senior Russian officer kicked out off the UN force out there for allowing weapons to be passed in to Serbian hands. He ended up being appointed as an advisor to the commander of a Serbian military group involved in Croatia shortly after.
Politically, there is Russia's stance on Kosovo and the Pristina Airport incident with NATO forces. When Kosovo eventually declared independence Putin went on to warn the west that this "set a precedent" that would come back to us.
To think Russia don't play sinister games when it suits them is dangerously niave. I'm pondering whether Ukraine breaking up would be just the consequence that Putin warned about when Kosovo got independence.
Specifically I am sorry if you feel I willfully misinterpreted your view, but I'm genuinely trying to work out what action exactly the EU took which you consider mistaken.
It's established that Yanukovic was voted in with a mandate to sign an accession agreement with the EU. Do you assert that the EU should never have offered it I the first place?
The other aspect of this is that the EU is widely criticized and rightly, for not having a coherent foreign policy. But that is hardly surprising when 27 countries have to agree. So I believe that various national politicians may have encouraged various Ukrainian politicians, and when it backfired they hid behind "the EU".
I have never imagined you to be a UKIP supporter, and I also have the highest respect for Len Glover's views. UKIP itself, that's another matter
..., this analysis takes no account of the fact that the vast majority of the population in Crimea and East Ukraine see their freedom and stability being dependent on closer ties with Russia. The separatist rebellion didn't happen in a vacuum and is not solely down to Russian agitators.
You see, it's this I don't understand. Who, in their right mind, whether a Russian speaker or not, would choose closer ties with that basket case country? Freedom, well, that's a joke: certainly not a free press for a start. And as for stability, well maybe, but at a such a low level of economic output* with not much prospect of improvement. Do these people not understand that closer ties with the EU would bring them so much more?
* I know a Russian girl whose mother still lives somewhere outside of Moscow. She's quite proud of the fact that she owns five fridges: none of them work of course, she just uses them as cupboards.
Interesting points above by just about everybody since my last post. Never knew that story about the Russians in Srebrenica. What is the name of that book please @luckyreds?
I would again assert that sanctions against Putin cronies are more efficient than people might assume, so long as No1 on the list is Roman Abramovic. What corrupt political leaders hate most of all is any action which hurts their personal bank accounts.
Interesting points above by just about everybody since my last post. Never knew that story about the Russians in Srebrenica. What is the name of that book please @luckyreds?
I would again assert that sanctions against Putin cronies are more efficient than people might assume, so long as No1 on the list is Roman Abramovic. What corrupt political leaders hate most of all is any action which hurts their personal bank accounts.
Which is exactly why David Cameron will do nothing...
Interesting points above by just about everybody since my last post. Never knew that story about the Russians in Srebrenica. What is the name of that book please @luckyreds?
I would again assert that sanctions against Putin cronies are more efficient than people might assume, so long as No1 on the list is Roman Abramovic. What corrupt political leaders hate most of all is any action which hurts their personal bank accounts.
Well, it's certainly already had an effect on Putin's daughter who has had to flee her flat in the Netherlands because of public outrage.
Ukraine states that the Malaysian airlines plane was shot down by a missile according to black box evidence
Meanwhile
"BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking 8m UK to send '"battle group" of 1,350 personnel to Poland for exercise as part of Nato initiative - defence secretary http://bbc.in/1ApueyI "
it was clearly some absolute muppet kid who thought he'd be billy big bollocks and shoot down what he thought was a Ukrainian jet to show off to his mates he could use the machine and gain some street cred for helping the rebellion. For me it's pretty obvious a lot of people have got a right good bollocking but of course Putin and the others arent going to admit that and try and cover their backs to look all "big and powerful".
The shooting down may have been a mistake but this sort of equipment simply cannot be used by "some absolute muppet kid" you are talking about serious technologically advanced military hardware.
Nobody knows what happened exactly - and we may never know the full story - but whoever did this was no amateur.
If this was a BUK missile system captured from the Ukrainians - which seems most likely - it wouldn't take that much knowledge to lock onto a target and launch a SA-11 missile. Don't forget this is 40 year old technology. The missile itself is radar guided as well and doesn't actually need to strike the aircraft.
The real skill in using this type of system is the 'command' element (identifying multiple targets, chosing targets to hit and firing the SA-11s at those targets) and the 'logistic' element which is basically the chosing of different missile types and their re-loading onto the launcher.
*DJ Progress Made in Identifying Persons Responsible for MH17 Shoot Down - Dutch Prosecutor *DJ 100 Persons Linked to MH17 Shootdown or Missile Transport - Dutch Prosecutor *DJ More Information On Role of Persons Involved in MH17 Downing Sought By Dutch Prosecutor *DJ Uncertain How Long Finishing MH17 Criminal Probe Will Take - Dutch Prosecutor *DJ Mandate of MH17 Criminal Probe Extended Until 2018 - Dutch Prosecutor
*DJ Progress Made in Identifying Persons Responsible for MH17 Shoot Down - Dutch Prosecutor *DJ 100 Persons Linked to MH17 Shootdown or Missile Transport - Dutch Prosecutor *DJ More Information On Role of Persons Involved in MH17 Downing Sought By Dutch Prosecutor *DJ Uncertain How Long Finishing MH17 Criminal Probe Will Take - Dutch Prosecutor *DJ Mandate of MH17 Criminal Probe Extended Until 2018 - Dutch Prosecutor
Following it on Twitter in the office, it all feels a bit pointless. I completely understand the need for answers and, at the very least, an attempt at justice.
We all know that Russia will issue a statement condemning the proceedings as biased and/or inaccurate. They may pay some form of lip service to any requests, but more likely it will be like the Litvinenko proceedings all over again: a complete refusal to cooperate.
*DJ Progress Made in Identifying Persons Responsible for MH17 Shoot Down - Dutch Prosecutor *DJ 100 Persons Linked to MH17 Shootdown or Missile Transport - Dutch Prosecutor *DJ More Information On Role of Persons Involved in MH17 Downing Sought By Dutch Prosecutor *DJ Uncertain How Long Finishing MH17 Criminal Probe Will Take - Dutch Prosecutor *DJ Mandate of MH17 Criminal Probe Extended Until 2018 - Dutch Prosecutor
Following it on Twitter in the office, it all feels a bit pointless. I completely understand the need for answers and, at the very least, an attempt at justice.
We all know that Russia will issue a statement condemning the proceedings as biased and/or inaccurate. They may pay some form of lip service to any requests, but more likely it will be like the Litvinenko proceedings all over again: a complete refusal to cooperate.
I look forward to the Russia Today spin later...
It is important to have a thorough investigation, to the standards we set ourselves (and I trust the Dutch 100% in this) for the sake of the families; but also so that normal rational people have a reservoir of hard facts to draw on, to help them counter the wave of what-aboutery and confusion-sowing which the modern Russian propaganda machine will pump out; and which will be shamefully assisted by new "post-truth" right wing outlets in the West, some of which are presented here by a certain Spanner who likes to visit us.
*DJ Progress Made in Identifying Persons Responsible for MH17 Shoot Down - Dutch Prosecutor *DJ 100 Persons Linked to MH17 Shootdown or Missile Transport - Dutch Prosecutor *DJ More Information On Role of Persons Involved in MH17 Downing Sought By Dutch Prosecutor *DJ Uncertain How Long Finishing MH17 Criminal Probe Will Take - Dutch Prosecutor *DJ Mandate of MH17 Criminal Probe Extended Until 2018 - Dutch Prosecutor
Following it on Twitter in the office, it all feels a bit pointless. I completely understand the need for answers and, at the very least, an attempt at justice.
We all know that Russia will issue a statement condemning the proceedings as biased and/or inaccurate. They may pay some form of lip service to any requests, but more likely it will be like the Litvinenko proceedings all over again: a complete refusal to cooperate.
I look forward to the Russia Today spin later...
It is important to have a thorough investigation, to the standards we set ourselves (and I trust the Dutch 100% in this) for the sake of the families; but also so that normal rational people have a reservoir of hard facts to draw on, to help them counter the wave of what-aboutery and confusion-sowing which the modern Russian propaganda machine will pump out; and which will be shamefully assisted by new "post-truth" right wing outlets in the West, some of which are presented here by a certain Spanner who likes to visit us.
I agree entirely, Prague.
I just can't help but feel sympathy for the families who, in addition to having had the heartbreak of their loved ones being slaughtered, are now going to watch a peice of political drama unfold which will undoubtedly fail to bring any real justice.
I'm not for one second saying that we should bin the idea of an investigation, just that I have low hopes for what it will achieve and feel sympathetic for those involved.
The Russian trolls and shills on Twitter have certainly been giving the bellingcat guys a hard time on Twitter. I believe Higgins has received quite a few threats for his own writing and observations on Russia.
I'm curious as to whether this investigation will have any effect on the US Election, where it's obvious that there's been Russian involvement in the email leaks and pro-Trump releases. Combined with Wikileaks essentially transforming in to a Putin mouthpiece, and even involving itself in the Labour leadership election, I can't help but worry that the propaganda coming out of Russia is going to get stronger and more far-reaching sadly.
Moscow has seemingly realised that people will push any old shit, regardless of source, if it fits in with their agenda. Surely a propagandists dream discovery..
Comments
It doesn't help much that Putin's Authoritarian regime is in power - and has held on to it by going against the spirit if of their constitution in flipping between President and PM.
To me what is going on in Ukraine to some extent is a reflection of those issues, and a painful contraction of Russian influence. The presence of large Russian populations in these states is always going to make things complicated.
Some call it a coup but I prefer to look at what comes after an overthrow like this, i.e. martial law Thailand, Egypt, or in Ukraine, elections.
I sometimes wonder if the problems we are seeing here and elsewhere in the world are due to a pervasive ageism in the West. It is like the advisers and decision makers in organisations such as the CIA, NATO, EU, and the UK government are all 30 and 40 years old and didn't experience the Cold War and have not properly studied its history. If the advisers and decision makers in these organisations were in their 50's and 60's I am confident we would not see so much conflict with Russia. If the EU wants to expand I think it should be making overtures to Russia about it joining the EU instead of talking to facist and nazi groups in smaller countries on Russia's borders.
Secondly, this analysis takes no account of the fact that the vast majority of the population in Crimea and East Ukraine see their freedom and stability being dependent on closer ties with Russia. The separatist rebellion didn't happen in a vacuum and is not solely down to Russian agitators.
Thirdly, Western governments should not talk about international law and respecting the integrity of international borders until they have effected a meaningful response to the flagrant breach of the Palestinian borders these last 50 years.
Perhaps more so as I was doing some reading on The Yugoslav Wars (I.e The Balkans) and read about Russian involvement during The Srebenica Massacre.
What upon first reading may seem to be simply Orthodox Russians travelling to Serbia to fight in a conflict that had a religious element to it - akin to the radicalisation of Islamic youths all over the west at the moment - begins to look more sinister.
There was a senior Russian officer kicked out off the UN force out there for allowing weapons to be passed in to Serbian hands. He ended up being appointed as an advisor to the commander of a Serbian military group involved in Croatia shortly after.
Politically, there is Russia's stance on Kosovo and the Pristina Airport incident with NATO forces. When Kosovo eventually declared independence Putin went on to warn the west that this "set a precedent" that would come back to us.
To think Russia don't play sinister games when it suits them is dangerously niave. I'm pondering whether Ukraine breaking up would be just the consequence that Putin warned about when Kosovo got independence.
theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/23/guardian-view-sanctions-russia-malaysia-airlines
I would again assert that sanctions against Putin cronies are more efficient than people might assume, so long as No1 on the list is Roman Abramovic. What corrupt political leaders hate most of all is any action which hurts their personal bank accounts.
Meanwhile
"BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking 8m
UK to send '"battle group" of 1,350 personnel to Poland for exercise as part of Nato initiative - defence secretary http://bbc.in/1ApueyI "
So a BUK Missile system it was.
*DJ 100 Persons Linked to MH17 Shootdown or Missile Transport - Dutch Prosecutor
*DJ More Information On Role of Persons Involved in MH17 Downing Sought By Dutch Prosecutor
*DJ Uncertain How Long Finishing MH17 Criminal Probe Will Take - Dutch Prosecutor
*DJ Mandate of MH17 Criminal Probe Extended Until 2018 - Dutch Prosecutor
We all know that Russia will issue a statement condemning the proceedings as biased and/or inaccurate. They may pay some form of lip service to any requests, but more likely it will be like the Litvinenko proceedings all over again: a complete refusal to cooperate.
I look forward to the Russia Today spin later...
I just can't help but feel sympathy for the families who, in addition to having had the heartbreak of their loved ones being slaughtered, are now going to watch a peice of political drama unfold which will undoubtedly fail to bring any real justice.
I'm not for one second saying that we should bin the idea of an investigation, just that I have low hopes for what it will achieve and feel sympathetic for those involved.
The Russian trolls and shills on Twitter have certainly been giving the bellingcat guys a hard time on Twitter. I believe Higgins has received quite a few threats for his own writing and observations on Russia.
I'm curious as to whether this investigation will have any effect on the US Election, where it's obvious that there's been Russian involvement in the email leaks and pro-Trump releases. Combined with Wikileaks essentially transforming in to a Putin mouthpiece, and even involving itself in the Labour leadership election, I can't help but worry that the propaganda coming out of Russia is going to get stronger and more far-reaching sadly.
Moscow has seemingly realised that people will push any old shit, regardless of source, if it fits in with their agenda. Surely a propagandists dream discovery..